{"id":12633,"date":"2024-08-13T09:03:45","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T07:03:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/"},"modified":"2024-08-13T09:03:45","modified_gmt":"2024-08-13T07:03:45","slug":"early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/","title":{"rendered":"Early Warning for New Trouble? Increasing Social Polarization in Guinea-Bissau"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gen Z protests have kept governments in, among others, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda, in suspense for weeks. Off the international radar, Guinea-Bissau has witnessed cross-generational protests lately, following an alleged coup attempt in late 2023. Protestors accuse the President of orchestrating the coup to dissolve parliament by decree. Many in Guinea-Bissau now challenge the presidency and demand adherence to the election schedule, with elections set for November 2024. This blog post takes the protests as a moment to widen the view, offering both narrative and counter-narrative readings of the coup attempt to contextualize the current political situation.<\/strong><\/p>\n

On 30 November and 1 December 2023, the West African coastal nation of Guinea-Bissau opened a new chapter of political instability. Triggered by an alleged case of corruption in the Ministry of Finance, the judicial police detained the Minister of Finance and the Secretary of State for the Treasury. When national guards tried to free the two in a night action from the judicial prison cells, a shoot out<\/a> occurred. Following this incident, the President Umaro Cissoco Embal\u00f3, through a presidential decree, dissolved<\/a> the Parliament, dismissed the government, and proclaimed<\/a> himself Minister of the Interior and National Defense.<\/p>\n

The interpretation of these events is twofold. One, there is the official reading as presented<\/a> by the presidency. The events that took place on those days were described<\/a> by President Embal\u00f3 and his political allies as a failed coup attempt. As a result, the newly formed government (only three months old), led by Geraldo Jo\u00e3o Martins, and the National People’s Assembly, resulting from the legislative elections of 4 June 2023, were removed from power, and a presidential initiative government was installed.<\/p>\n

Second, the opposition parties as well as civil society organizations, in a counter-narrative, describe the events as coup from above<\/a> and orchestrated by the Presidency<\/a> to ensure a dissolution<\/a> of the parliament in order for him to strengthening his grip on power by bringing back political majorities in government and parliament on his side. This is the second time that the president is accused of staging a coup d\u2019\u00e9tat, following a coup attempt in 2022<\/a>. These two narratives stand against each other and are fueled\/must be contextualized by developments since 2019.<\/p>\n

History in a Nutshell: The Legislature 2019 \u2013 23 and the 2023 Parliamentary Elections<\/h2>\n

When the current President Embal\u00f3 won the presidential elections in 2019, his first decree after assuming power was the dismissal of the government, then led by Aristides Gomes. Instead, President Embal\u00f3 appointed his supporter Nuno Gomes Nabiam, the leader of the political party APU-PDGB (Assembleia do Povo Unido – Partido Democr\u00e1tico da Guin\u00e9-Bissau). Since then, the president further tightened his grip on power:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. 1. <\/em><\/strong>In an attempt to annihilate his political opponents and impose his own agenda, the regime of President Embal\u00f3 installed a militia group with the purpose of kidnapping and beating activists and political opponents. APU-PDGB deputy Marciano Indi was the regime’s first victim<\/a> after criticizing President Embal\u00f3 in an interview<\/a>.<\/li>\n
  2. Media outlets, namely RTP Africa<\/a>, Ag\u00eancia Lusa, R\u00e1dio Jovem, and Radio Capital<\/a>, came under criticism. Radio Capital was vandalized twice by armed men. This incident, along with others of similar nature, was characterized by authorities as an isolated case.<\/li>\n
  3. The PAIGC, the largest political force in Guinea-Bissau and winner of the legislative elections in March 2019, was subjected to political persecution. For instance, the 10th Congress of the party was repeatedly postponed by court order<\/a> through a provisional measure filed by Bolom Cont\u00e9, one of the party’s members. In addition, the headquarters of the PAIGC were repeatedly raided by public security forces, and tear gas was even deployed against party members. The President of the PAIGC, Domingos Sim\u00f5es Pereira, was prevented<\/a> from accessing the party’s headquarters and was also prevented from traveling abroad.<\/li>\n
  4. From a popular point of view, high rates of inflation causing rising prices for essential commodities and the government\u2019s reaction to increase taxes or even introduce new taxes sparked additional resentment.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In light of these and other factors, the parliamentary elections in June 2023<\/a> were expected to be tense, in particular with respect to Guinea-Bissau\u2019s history of electoral turmoil and violence. For the elections, the PAIGC chose to run through a coalition called the ‘Platform of Inclusive Alliance Terra Ranka’ (PAI Terra Ranka). The announced results declared victory for the PAI Terra Ranka coalition with 54 seats, allowing the coalition to form a government and obtain an absolute majority in parliament. This meant a loss in power for President Embal\u00f3 and his political allies moved into opposition. The power relations between the president and the government were now leaning towards the new government.<\/p>\n

    The Events of the Alleged Coup-Attempt<\/h2>\n

    It was three months after the new government took office that the alleged coup-attempt described above occurred. In the lead up, there were circulating reports of an alleged payment to a group of businessmen, through the Ministry of Finance, of 6 billion FCFA. The majority of the supposedly paid businessmen belonged to government coalition PAI Terra Ranka, which sparked rumors of alleged corruption and misappropriation of public funds. Following that episode, the Public Prosecutor’s Office conducted searches and seizures of documents at the Ministry of Finance. The Minister of Finance, Suleimane Seide, was questioned in Parliament and confirmed the accuracy of the circulating information, that is, there was indeed payment to the businessmen.<\/p>\n

    Suleimane Seide further added that such practice is not new in the Ministry of Finance; a payment of the same nature had been made months before the PAI Terra Ranka coalition took over the government. After the declaration in Parliament, the Public Prosecutor’s Office summoned the Minister for a hearing, along with the Secretary of State for the Treasury, Ant\u00f3nio Monteiro. Following the hearing, Suleimane Seide and Ant\u00f3nio Monteiro were taken<\/a> by presidential security forces to the cells of the judicial police. According to the Public Prosecutor’s Office, this decision would allow the hearings to continue the following day.<\/p>\n

    What followed at night was later described by the President as an alleged coup-attempt: That same night of the detention, a group of agents belonging to the national guard invaded and removed Suleimane Seide and Ant\u00f3nio Monteiro from the cells of the Judicial Police and took them to the national guard installation. This incident led to a shootout between national guard agents and soldiers belonging to the Presidential Battalion. Ultimately, Suleimane Seide and Ant\u00f3nio Monteiro were recovered by the soldiers of the Presidency under the orders of President Embal\u00f3. Following this incident, President Embal\u00f3, through a presidential decree, dissolved the Parliament, dismissed the government, and proclaimed himself temporary Minister of the Interior and National Defense, alleging an attempted coup d’\u00e9tat.<\/p>\n

    Counter-Narrative<\/h2>\n

    The president\u2019s interpretation<\/a> of the incident as coup attempt fails to convince many citizens<\/a> in Guinea-Bissau and leaves questions unanswered<\/a>: If the Minister of Finance authorized the payment to the businessmen, resulting in his detention, and subsequently led to gunfire at the national guard installations, what was the complicity of Parliament in that incident? On the other hand, is it possible to stage a coup d’\u00e9tat in the cells of the judicial police or at the national guard installations? If the Public Prosecutor’s Office decided to continue the hearing the next day, why were the Minister of Finance and the Secretary of State for the Treasury taken to the cells of the judicial police by the military of the presidency? These and other questions remain unanswered because there is no reciprocity between the events and the subsequent justifications for the dissolution of the parliament and the government itself.<\/p>\n

    Instead, the events of 30 November are seen as nothing more than a trap by President Embal\u00f3 and his allies to regain control of power. The characteristics of the event bear no resemblance to a coup d’\u00e9tat. In fact, as PAI Terra Ranka was the main figure in the government, it is difficult to rationalize why the same would want to stage a coup d’\u00e9tat. President Embal\u00f3\u2019s reading of it as an attempted coup d’\u00e9tat seems to have had the sole aim of removing PAI Terra Ranka from power and forming his own government. And that’s exactly what happened after the dissolution of the ANP and the government, President Embal\u00f3 formed the government known as the \u2018presidential initiative government\u2019, a form of government that does not exist<\/a> in the Constitution of Guinea-Bissau.<\/p>\n

    Where to, Guinea-Bissau?<\/h2>\n

    The political instabilities of Guinea-Bissau are cyclical with two coup attempts in the past two years and at least ten<\/a> since independence in 1974. The different regimes that have passed through the country have failed to nourish the golden hopes of the people of Guinea-Bissau. Personal ambition and the violation of constitutional norms seem to be the main factors of political instability in the country. Hence, in the lead up to the scheduled presidential election in November 2024, \u201c[t]he bigger story in Guinea-Bissau [\u2026] will be about how to build and sustain momentum for a stable system of government and institutional guardrails against the abuse of power.\u201d (ACSS 17 January 2024<\/a>)<\/p>\n

    This blog post has shown how a close look at the news of an alleged coup attempt can reveal a fight over interpretive authority<\/a> in volatile political contexts and quite different societal narratives that stand side-by-side. The win<\/a> of the opposition in the parliamentary election in 2023 was a clear sign for President Umaro Cissoco Embal\u00f3 for waning public support, and the narrative and counter-narrative of the alleged coup point to an increasing societal polarization. Mounting societal pressure and polarization encounter<\/a> an ever more repressive state with a president even strengthening his grip on power. While the protests point to emerging resistance against President Embal\u00f3, the apparatus of repression remains feared and state measures are becoming even more restrictive.<\/p>\n

    This is not last expressed by the recent creation of a coalition of civil society organizations called \u201cFrente Popular<\/a>\u201d that has to date organized two marches aimed at protesting against the precarious living conditions in the country and at demanding for the President to keep up the rule of law and democracy as enshrined in the Constitution. During the first nation-wide protest in May 2024, several activists were arrested<\/a>, including the head of the coalition. On \u00a02 March, protestors were dispersed by security forces. In reaction to continuing protests, the government started an anti-coup campaign (Batalhao anti-golpe<\/a>) and has increased crack-downs on protestors. Only last week, more activists were detained<\/a> but protests continue to be organized, even in the diaspora<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    Looking ahead, two potential critical moments are approaching that will tell how democratic rights and (regime) stability are balanced in the future. One marks the upcoming celebrations of Bissau\u2019s national hero and independence fighter Amilcar Cabral\u2019s 100th<\/sup> birthday on 12 September 2024 and celebrations around the ensuing national holiday on 24 September 2024. Whether or not the president allows celebrations around these dates is yet to be seen but will be decisive over a potential new wave of protests. The other critical moment are the scheduled presidential elections for November 2024. President Embal\u00f3\u2019s term ends in February 2025 and he is generally eligible for a second term. Instead of presidential elections, however, President Embal\u00f3 announced<\/a> another round of parliamentary elections. While major political<\/a> and societal<\/a> forces call for keeping up the electoral calendar and for holding presidential elections referencing the constitution, others fear<\/a> that the current political situation is not conducive for holding elections at all. In all of this, there has been a remarkable silence<\/a> from the international community, and observers from Guinea-Bissau criticize that neither the UN, the African Union nor ECOWAS have so far reacted to the emerging political crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Gen Z protests have kept governments in, among others, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda, in suspense for weeks. Off the international radar, Guinea-Bissau has witnessed cross-generational protests lately, following an alleged coup attempt in late 2023. Protestors accuse the President of orchestrating the coup to dissolve parliament by decree. Many in Guinea-Bissau now challenge the presidency and demand adherence to the election schedule, with elections set for November 2024. This blog post takes the protests as a moment to widen the view, offering both narrative and counter-narrative readings of the coup attempt to contextualize the current political situation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":238,"featured_media":12385,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1125],"tags":[1116,1130,1246,1131],"coauthors":[779,1031],"class_list":["post-12633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-en","tag-africa","tag-democracy","tag-polarization","tag-protest-en"],"acf":[],"views":1143,"yoast_head":"\nEarly Warning for New Trouble? 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In ihrer Forschung besch\u00e4ftigt sie sich mit Fragen der inter\u00adnationalen Friedens\u00adkonsolidierung, Alltags- und Subjektivierungs\u00adprozessen sowie Theorien von Zwang in den inter\u00adnationalen Beziehungen. Konkret nimmt Sophia Birchinger afrikanische Regional\u00adorganisationen (AU, ECOWAS) sowie (nicht-)milit\u00e4rische Inter\u00adventionen innerhalb der Afrikanischen Friedens- und Sicherheits\u00adarchitektur in den Blick. Ausgehend von einer \u201ebottom-up\u201c-Perspektive untersucht sie in ihrem Dissertations\u00adprojekt, wie B\u00fcrger*innen in Gambia und Guinea-Bissau die Androhung und Anwendung von Zwang in afrikanischen Friedens\u00adinterventionen erleben. \/\/ Sophia Birchinger is a Doctoral Researcher in the Research Group African Inter\u00advention Politics in PRIF's Research Depart\u00adment Local Peace Orders. 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Many in Guinea-Bissau now challenge the presidency and demand adherence to the election schedule, with elections set for November 2024. This blog post takes the protests as a moment to widen the view, offering both narrative and counter-narrative readings of the coup attempt to contextualize the current political situation.","og_url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/","og_site_name":"PRIF BLOG","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/HSFK.PRIF","article_published_time":"2024-08-13T07:03:45+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1875,"height":1025,"url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3311470931_3553f900da_o_Zuschnitt.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Sophia Birchinger, Wilson Pedro T\u00e9","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HSFK_PRIF","twitter_site":"@HSFK_PRIF","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Sophia Birchinger, Wilson Pedro T\u00e9","Est. reading time":"12 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/"},"author":{"name":"Sophia Birchinger","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/7e126e915a6d12834788671fe5ed3377"},"headline":"Early Warning for New Trouble? 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Increasing Social Polarization in Guinea-Bissau - PRIF BLOG","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3311470931_3553f900da_o_Zuschnitt.jpg","datePublished":"2024-08-13T07:03:45+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3311470931_3553f900da_o_Zuschnitt.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3311470931_3553f900da_o_Zuschnitt.jpg","width":1875,"height":1025,"caption":"Cape Verdeans in large numbers gather in Praia, Santiago Island, to welcome a visit from PAIGC Secretary-General, Aristides Pereira, first President of independent Cape Verde. A portrait of Amilcar Cabral, \"militante No. 1 de nos povo\", the founder of PAIGC, can be seen on one of their banners. Cabral earned world-wide respect for his talents as a theorist and an organizer as well as for his personal physical courage. It was largely due to his untiring efforts that UN attention was drawn to the problems of the Portuguese-held territories in Africa. He was assassinated early in 1973, just months prior to the proclamation of the Republic or Guinea-Bissau. 1\/Jan\/1975. UN Photo\/Yutaka Nagata. www.unmultimedia.org\/photo\/"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2024\/08\/13\/early-warning-for-new-trouble-increasing-social-polarization-in-guinea-bissau\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Early Warning for New Trouble? Increasing Social Polarization in Guinea-Bissau"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/","name":"PRIF BLOG","description":"Peace Research Institute Frankfurt \/ Leibniz Institut Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#organization","name":"Peace Research Institute Frankfurt \/ Leibniz Institut Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung","url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cropped-blog_rgb.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cropped-blog_rgb.png","width":750,"height":226,"caption":"Peace Research Institute Frankfurt \/ Leibniz Institut Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/HSFK.PRIF","https:\/\/x.com\/HSFK_PRIF","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/8912786\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/7e126e915a6d12834788671fe5ed3377","name":"Sophia Birchinger","description":"Sophia Birchinger ist Doctoral Researcher in der Forschungsgruppe African Inter\u00advention Politics im Programm\u00adbereich Glokale Verflecht\u00adungen des PRIF. In ihrer Forschung besch\u00e4ftigt sie sich mit Fragen der inter\u00adnationalen Friedens\u00adkonsolidierung, Alltags- und Subjektivierungs\u00adprozessen sowie Theorien von Zwang in den inter\u00adnationalen Beziehungen. Konkret nimmt Sophia Birchinger afrikanische Regional\u00adorganisationen (AU, ECOWAS) sowie (nicht-)milit\u00e4rische Inter\u00adventionen innerhalb der Afrikanischen Friedens- und Sicherheits\u00adarchitektur in den Blick. Ausgehend von einer \u201ebottom-up\u201c-Perspektive untersucht sie in ihrem Dissertations\u00adprojekt, wie B\u00fcrger*innen in Gambia und Guinea-Bissau die Androhung und Anwendung von Zwang in afrikanischen Friedens\u00adinterventionen erleben. \/\/ Sophia Birchinger is a Doctoral Researcher in the Research Group African Inter\u00advention Politics in PRIF's Research Depart\u00adment Local Peace Orders. Her research deals with questions of international peace\u00adbuilding, the everyday and theories of coercion in inter\u00adnational relations. Specifically, Sophia Birchinger focuses on African regional organiza\u00adtions (AU, ECOWAS), as well as (non-)military inter\u00adventions within the African Peace and Security Architec\u00adture. Taking on a bottom-up perspec\u00adtive, in her PhD project, she explores how citizens in The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau experience the threat and use of coercion in African peace inter\u00adventions.","url":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/author\/sbirchinger\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/238"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12633"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=12633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}