{"id":12933,"date":"2022-10-25T10:36:25","date_gmt":"2022-10-25T08:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/brazils-presidential-election-how-far-does-the-populist-glow-reach\/"},"modified":"2022-10-25T10:36:25","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T08:36:25","slug":"brazils-presidential-election-how-far-does-the-populist-glow-reach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2022\/10\/25\/brazils-presidential-election-how-far-does-the-populist-glow-reach\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil\u2019s Presidential Election: How Far does the Populist Glow Reach?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The first round of Brazil’s presidential elections took place on 2 October 2022.\u00a0The result<\/a>\u00a0was 43.2% for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and 48.4% for ex-president (2003\u20132010) Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula Da Silva. Given that none of the candidates achieved more than 50%, a final run-off is scheduled for 30 October.\u00a0Pre-election polls<\/a>\u00a0predicted Lula would reach the critical 50% threshold. These polls also projected Bolsonaro would win around 36%. But in the end, his vote share was more than 43%. This result left the world searching for an explanation.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Why did Polls Underestimate Bolsonaro?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Thoughout his premiership, Bolsonaro has promulgated xenophobic, racist and\u00a0misogynist<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0discourse<\/strong><\/a>. During the\u00a0Covid-19 crisis<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0he was guilty of blame-shifting, denialism, and downplaying the virus. Bolsonaro has continuously\u00a0attacked democratic institutions<\/strong><\/a>, by claiming, for example, that the electoral system was malfunctioning. These serious allegations have\u00a0eroded public trust<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in institutions. More recently, Brazil has experienced a rise in\u00a0inflation<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0poverty<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Until recently, observers assumed Bolsonaro to be an \u201caberration\u201d. He profited from the corruption scandal engulfing left-wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), and its leader Lula’s subsequent withdrawal from the 2018 elections. But in 2022, the scenario is different. Lula has been released from prison, and his corruption charges dropped. Bolsonaro\u2019s governance has proven rather shaky. Research suggested<\/strong><\/a> that the \u201cpopulist glow\u201d \u2013 voters’ emotion-driven support for the populist \u2013 would fade. Yet comprehensive disillusionment<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in Bolsonaro has so far failed to materialise.<\/p>\n

Shallow analyses suggesting reasons for the\u00a0polls\u2019 inaccuracy<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0abound. Some speculate that sampling biases or strategic voting were to blame. Others claim that right-wing voters were reluctant to reveal their true preferences,\u00a0fearing them to be socially unacceptable<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, Bolsonaro\u2019s allies\u00a0outperformed<\/strong><\/a> expectations in the elections of federal deputies, governors and senators. This proves how deeply entrenched authoritarian populism and the far right are in Brazil\u2019s political landscape. Understanding why a considerable proportion of Brazilians still trusts Bolsonaro and his allies therefore requires more in-depth analysis.<\/p>\n

Populist Logic<\/h2>\n

Populist logic helps make sense of the continuing support for Bolsonaro. We may understand populism as the expression of a\u00a0crisis of trust<\/strong><\/a> in democracy and politics. Populists and their devotees no longer trust democratic institutions and \u201cthe elite\u201d to represent their demands and needs. The populist leader positions himself or herself as an anti-establishment candidate<\/strong><\/a> defending \u201cthe people\u201d. This encourages citizens to identify with the populist, and fosters an inherently \u201cpersonalistic\u201d type of political trust.<\/p>\n

Populist trust is\u00a0qualitatively limited<\/strong><\/a>: people tend to place trust in the leader, rather than in more complex political programmes or political parties. Bolsonaro enhanced this personalistic type of trust. He questioned democratic institutions, responded in populist fashion to people\u2019s anxieties and uncertainties, and perpetuated their myths. The theoretical assumption that populists are likely to\u00a0exploit and capitalise on crises<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0certainly holds true for Bolsonaro and the Covid-19 pandemic. Three channels may account for Bolsonaro\u2019s ongoing support among the Brazilian population:<\/p>\n

1. Fuelling Polarisation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Since his early days in power, Bolsonaro has pitted his in-group of supporters against a host of reprehensible out-groups. At the same time, he has fuelled resentment and\u00a0antipetismo<\/strong><\/a><\/em>,<\/em> and evoked the \u201ccommunist threat\u201d. The pandemic also allowed Bolsonaro to perpetuate a climate of constant crisis. Repercussions from Covid-19 contributed to widespread public grievance, social discontent and resentment against lockdowns<\/strong><\/a>. Bolsonaro shifted the blame for his failed policies and economic decline to the state governors. By so doing, he nurtured anti-establishment sentiments, and increased the polarisation of Brazilian society. This strategy allowed Bolsonaro to promote himself as a crisis moderator, generating greater trust in him, and his like-minded allies.<\/p>\n

2. Instrumentalising Fake News<\/h3>\n

Throughout the coronacrisis, Bolsonaro spread an \u201cinfodemic<\/strong><\/a>\u201d of fake news and discreditated scientific evidence. This, together with people\u2019s declining trust in institutions and their authority, drove wild speculation, the spread of ambiguous information, and epistemic insecurity. Conspiracy theories<\/strong><\/a> and \u201calternative truths\u201d, part of populists\u2019 and Bolsonaro\u2019s playbook, claimed \u2013 misleadingly \u2013 to provide simple solutions to intricate problems. In a climate of uncertainty, Bolsonaro encouraged people’s inclination to fall back on subjective beliefs, providing alternative, extra-institutional sources of epistemic trust.<\/p>\n

3. Playing the Saviour<\/h3>\n

He also builds on a wider strategy of \u201csacralising\u201d politics, including the staffing of governmental positions with evangelical personnel. Bolsonaro \u2013 full name Jair Messias<\/em>\u00a0Bolsonaro \u2013 casts himself as a\u00a0messianic figure<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0who will bring salvation to the populace. His followers even refer to him as\u00a0O mito<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 the myth.\u00a0Research shows<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0that the messianic communication style, which adds religious narratives to traditional populist rhetoric, is trending among Latin American populists. Bolsonaro\u00a0showcases his religiousness<\/strong><\/a> and claims that \u201conly God will oust me\u201d<\/strong><\/a>. By so doing, he has advanced a faith-based notion of trust.<\/p>\n

The Horizon<\/h2>\n

Bolsonaro thus employed a dual strategy: erode institutional trust on the one hand, and draw on three sources of personalistic trust on the other. Against the odds, this attracted him a considerable share of popular support. Populist-personalistic trust may complement or replace conventional forms of democratic trust. It seems to be more stable and functional even under challenging conditions.<\/p>\n

Out-of-race candidates Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes have recently come forward to endorse ex-President Lula. Lula is currently considered the favourite to win Brazil’s presidential election on 30 October. [Note: Recent polls<\/a> saw the gap between the two candidates narrowing with currently 52% for Lula and 48% for Bolsonaro. Given the inaccuracy of the polls in the first round of elections, unpredicted shifts in the election result cannot be ruled out for the upcoming run-off.] But Bolsonarismo<\/em>\u00a0is unlikely to vanish. Even if Lula emerges victorious, the legacy of Bolsonaro will continue to cast a considerable pall over a Lula administration.<\/p>\n

This article was first published on ECPR’s The Loop blog<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The first round of Brazil’s presidential elections took place on 2 October 2022.\u00a0The result\u00a0was 43.2% for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and 48.4% for ex-president (2003\u20132010) Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula Da Silva. Given that none of the candidates achieved more than 50%, a final run-off is scheduled for 30 October.\u00a0Pre-election polls\u00a0predicted Lula would reach the critical 50% threshold. These polls also projected Bolsonaro would win around 36%. But in the end, his vote share was more than 43%. This result left the world searching for an explanation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":210,"featured_media":11397,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1125],"tags":[1149,1163,1130,1223],"coauthors":[737],"class_list":["post-12933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-en","tag-autocracy","tag-brazil-en","tag-democracy","tag-elections"],"acf":[],"views":1358,"yoast_head":"\nBrazil\u2019s Presidential Election: How Far does the Populist Glow Reach? - PRIF BLOG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2022\/10\/25\/brazils-presidential-election-how-far-does-the-populist-glow-reach\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil\u2019s Presidential Election: How Far does the Populist Glow Reach? - PRIF BLOG\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The first round of Brazil's presidential elections took place on 2 October 2022.\u00a0The result\u00a0was 43.2% for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and 48.4% for ex-president (2003\u20132010) Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula Da Silva. 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N. Schreiber","description":"Franziska F. N. Schreiber ist Doktorandin im Rahmen der Forschungsinitiative \u201eConTrust \u2013 Vertrauen im Konflikt\u201c am PRIF und der Goethe-Universit\u00e4t Frankfurt. Sie ist im Programmbereich Internationale Institutionen t\u00e4tig. Ihre Forschungsschwerpunkte sind Vertrauen in internationalen Beziehungen, Multilateralismus und Lateinamerika. \/\/ Franziska F. N. Schreiber is doctoral researcher in the research initiative \u201cConTrust \u2013 Trust in Conflict\u201d at PRIF and Goethe University Frankfurt. She is active in the Research Department International Institutions. 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