{"id":14053,"date":"2025-07-23T12:34:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T10:34:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/?p=14053"},"modified":"2026-01-05T10:33:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-05T09:33:44","slug":"lithium-before-democracy-the-hidden-costs-of-europes-green-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2025\/07\/23\/lithium-before-democracy-the-hidden-costs-of-europes-green-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"Lithium Before Democracy: The Hidden Costs of Europe\u2019s Green Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"

Europe requires vast amounts of critical raw materials to fuel their green transition. The European Union has invested in several strategic projects to boost their domestic CRM supply while reducing dependencies on importing from China. One of these projects, the Serbian Jadar Valley mine, shows the EU\u2019s continued willingness to partner with Serbian President Aleksander Vu\u010di\u0107 despite his violent repression of protests and democratic backsliding. The EU has yet to overtly condemn Vu\u010di\u0107, a strategic stance that has been intensely criticized by Serbians and European nations alike. How far will the EU truly go in their support of Vu\u010di\u0107 to prioritize their economic strategy?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Green Transition<\/h2>\n

In December 2019, the European Commission published their formal response to the climate crisis: the \u201cEuropean Green Deal\u201d (EGD). With the EGD, Europe plans to become the world\u2019s first climate neutral continent by transitioning to a greener economy. Vital to their \u201cgreen transition\u201d are critical raw materials (CRMs), used in a variety of green technologies such as batteries and solar panels.<\/p>\n

Lithium, a key component in the lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), has gained attention from countries globally. Demand for lithium is expected to triple over the next decade<\/a>. Due to a domestic supply shortage, the EU currently imports 81% of its extracted lithium and 100% of its refined lithium<\/a>. China produces 70 percent<\/a> of the world\u2019s lithium-ion batteries, sparking renewed interest in developing domestic European CRM supply chains to avoid prolonged dependence on China.<\/p>\n

Seeking a solution, the EU established the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in 2022, which is intended to secure resilient, domestic supply chains for numerous CRMs. The CRMA lies at the center of Europe\u2019s green transition, setting ambitious benchmarks<\/a> for reducing import dependencies through 47 strategic projects within the EU and 13 outside of the EU.<\/p>\n

A Short-Lived Victory for Protesters<\/h2>\n

One of these projects, the Jadar Valley lithium mine in Serbia, has been touted as a strategic opportunity for both the EU and Serbia. In exchange for its CRMs, Serbia would benefit from increased economic integration with the EU and a potentially smoother EU accession process. However, concerns about the environmental consequences of the project ignited nationwide protests, making the Jadar Valley a focal point for social and political unrest.<\/p>\n

In 2004, Rio Tinto, a London-Australia based mining company, discovered a lithium and boron-rich mineral in western Serbia, naming it \u201cjadarite\u201d after the Jadar Valley. Serbia\u2019s supply of lithium would cover 90% of Europe\u2019s lithium demand<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Citing the ecological and social damage caused by similar mining projects (such as the Vare\u0161 silver mine in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which received numerous environmental complaints for documented pollution<\/a>), local communities and environmental groups called for the cancellation of Rio Tinto\u2019s mining permits. The \u201cWe Won\u2019t Give Up Jadar\u201d protests<\/a> garnered mass support, uniting grassroots organizations, opposition politicians, and environmentalists across Serbia. Under pressure from a 38,000 person petition<\/a>, President Vu\u010di\u0107 revoked Rio Tinto\u2019s mining permit in January 2022, marking a significant victory for the protests. Despite their permits being annulled, Rio Tinto maintained a presence in the Jadar Valley.<\/p>\n

Overriding the Environmentalists<\/h2>\n

\"Table<\/p>\n

In September 2023, Vu\u010di\u0107 reversed his concession by signing a Letter of Intent (LoI) to mine CRMs for the EU\u2019s green transition. Despite more protests, the project moved forward: days after the Serbian Constitutional Court unfroze Rio Tinto\u2019s permits, Vu\u010di\u0107 signed a MoU with the European Commission on July 19th, 2024, formalizing their strategic partnership. While Serbia\u2019s Constitutional Court is formally independent, Vu\u010di\u0107 has appointed a third of its judges, raising questions of its impartiality in reinstating Rio Tinto\u2019s permits.<\/p>\n

During a press conference following the signing of their MoU, EU Trade Commissioner Maro\u0161 \u0160ef\u010dovi\u010d, President Vu\u010di\u0107, and former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the project\u2019s strict environmental guidelines. Vu\u010di\u0107 affirmed that environmental protection was his top priority<\/a> and that the EU\u2019s top environmental experts would monitor the Jadar Valley mine. However, Rio Tinto\u2019s preliminary research drilling in 2021 already polluted the surrounding area, and environmental damage is projected to intensify<\/a> as the mine becomes operational. Any attempts at remediation have been limited and lack transparency. For these reasons, one poll<\/a> shows that over 88 percent of Serbians do not believe that the mine will adhere to the highest environmental standards and over 60 percent<\/a> of Serbians oppose the project altogether. In spite of the project\u2019s pollution and unpopularity, the EU has invested 5.5 billion euros<\/a> across their 13 non-EU strategic projects, with Rio Tinto contributing 2.24 billion euros<\/a> to the Jadar Valley mine.<\/p>\n

The strategic partnership between the EU and Serbia overrode the victory of Serbia\u2019s environmental protests by restarting mining operations in the Jadar Valley. The EU contributed to the reversal of this policy, signaling an alliance between the EU and Vu\u010di\u0107 against the demands of protestors. Working with Vu\u010di\u0107 against protestors may further undermine the Serbian peoples\u2019 support of EU accession, a constituency that is already in decline<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In November 2024, a new wave of protests<\/a> began following the collapse of the Novi Sad railway, a Chinese-led construction project connected to the \u2018Belt and Road Initiative\u2019. Because Vu\u010di\u0107 views these protests as an existential threat to his regime, he has increasingly relied on violent measures to suppress the protests and remain in power. Protestors have been hospitalized, arrested, and intimidated<\/a>. Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s escalation of violence has been undeterred by Serbia\u2019s democratic institutions, which were strategically weakened<\/a> by Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s administration from 2012 to 2018.<\/p>\n

Given Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s violent crackdown on Serbia\u2019s current nationwide protests, questions remain on how the EU\u2019s strategic partnership with Serbia impacts their public response to his authoritarian abuses.<\/p>\n

The EU\u2019s Response to Vu\u010di\u0107<\/h2>\n

In recent years, the EU has issued coordinated responses to the violent repression of protests in Belarus, Georgia, Iran, and Hong Kong. These responses included direct condemnation, third-party investigations, and joint sanctions. The same is not true for Serbia. The EU\u2019s response to Vu\u010di\u0107 thus far has been disconnected, disorganized, and ineffective.<\/p>\n

At the highest levels, the EU has maintained a strategic silence towards Vu\u010di\u0107. High-level officials consistently emphasize Serbia\u2019s economic progress while avoiding substantive discussion of Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s violent repression of protests and democratic backsliding. Over the past year, EU Commission President von der Leyen, EU Council President Costa, EU Enlargement Commissioner Kos, NATO Secretary General Rutte, former German Chancellor Scholz, and Trade Commissioner \u0160ef\u010dovi\u010d have all met with Vu\u010di\u0107, praising Serbia\u2019s economic progress<\/a> and affirming its path to joining the EU while turning a blind eye to Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s authoritarianism.<\/p>\n

The majority of the EU\u2019s criticism of Vu\u010di\u0107 has come from the institution\u2019s lower levels. Political groups and individuals such as the Socialists & Democrats (S&D), Greens\/EFA, Renew Europe, JEF Europe (Young European Federalists), the EU Parliament\u2019s rapporteur for Serbia, the EU delegation to Serbia, and the EU Commissioner for Human Rights have all issued public statements supporting Serbian student protesters and condemning the violent repression of peaceful protests. However, uncoordinated and disorganized criticisms through decentralized EU institutions evidently do not impact the regime\u2019s behavior.<\/p>\n

Before von der Leyen\u2019s meeting with Vu\u010di\u0107 on March 25th, 2025, 31 MEPs sent her a letter<\/a> stating that the meeting would send \u201ca highly troubling and harmful signal given the depth and gravity of political crisis in Serbia,\u201d potentially reinforcing the perception that the EU ignores Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s authoritarianism. In response to the letter and growing discontent with the EU\u2019s silence, von der Leyen wrote that Serbia \u201cneeds to deliver on EU reforms, in particular to take decisive steps towards media freedom, the fight against corruption and the electoral reform\u201d in a post on X<\/a> after her meeting with Vu\u010di\u0107. The post did not mention the violent repression of protests. On that same day, the EU even officially approved<\/a> the 60 strategic projects for CRMs across Europe, including the Jadar Valley mine.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The EU\u2019s strategic silence has been shaped and constrained by a multitude of factors, such as the EU\u2019s need for domestic CRMs, political ties and party affiliations between Vu\u010di\u0107 and EU officials (such as von der Leyen), a strategic interest in maintaining stability in the Western Balkans, and Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s ideological and economic partnerships with Russia and China<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For these reasons, Vu\u010di\u0107 knows that the EU will not want to take significant action against his regime. Any potential action, such as freezing Serbia\u2019s EU accession disbursements, designating Serbia as a \u201cbacksliding democracy,\u201d demanding third-party monitoring of mining, financially supporting independent Serbian media, or even issuing united statements denouncing Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s authoritarianism may jeopardize their mutually beneficial strategic partnership. In return, Vu\u010di\u0107 is afforded additional leniency with regard to his violent repression of protests and democratic backsliding.<\/p>\n

Serbia\u2019s Jadar Valley mine highlights the length that the EU is willing to go to prioritize its green transition over democracy and human rights in Serbia. In doing so, the EU further erodes its credibility as a defender of democracy<\/a> and allows Vu\u010di\u0107 greater latitude to entrench his political control. As Serbia\u2019s protests grow in size and intensity every week, one question remains: at what point will Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s continued repression and violence make the EU\u2019s silence impossible to maintain?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Europe requires vast amounts of critical raw materials to fuel their green transition. The European Union has invested in several strategic projects to boost their domestic CRM supply while reducing dependencies on importing from China. One of these projects, the Serbian Jadar Valley mine, shows the EU\u2019s continued willingness to partner with Serbian President Aleksander Vu\u010di\u0107 despite his violent repression of protests and democratic backsliding. The EU has yet to overtly condemn Vu\u010di\u0107, a strategic stance that has been intensely criticized by Serbians and European nations alike. How far will the EU truly go in their support of Vu\u010di\u0107 to prioritize their economic strategy?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":408,"featured_media":14020,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1125],"tags":[1207,1078,1230],"coauthors":[1432],"class_list":["post-14053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-en","tag-economic-policy","tag-environment","tag-european-union"],"acf":[],"views":695,"yoast_head":"\nLithium Before Democracy: The Hidden Costs of Europe\u2019s Green Transition - PRIF BLOG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2025\/07\/23\/lithium-before-democracy-the-hidden-costs-of-europes-green-transition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lithium Before Democracy: The Hidden Costs of Europe\u2019s Green Transition - PRIF BLOG\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Europe requires vast amounts of critical raw materials to fuel their green transition. 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The European Union has invested in several strategic projects to boost their domestic CRM supply while reducing dependencies on importing from China. One of these projects, the Serbian Jadar Valley mine, shows the EU\u2019s continued willingness to partner with Serbian President Aleksander Vu\u010di\u0107 despite his violent repression of protests and democratic backsliding. The EU has yet to overtly condemn Vu\u010di\u0107, a strategic stance that has been intensely criticized by Serbians and European nations alike. 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Er untersucht die politischen und sozialen Folgen des Lithiumabbaus im globalen Wettlauf um wichtige Rohstoffe. \/\/ Sid Shah is an undergraduate at Princeton University studying Public and International Affairs. 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