{"id":14881,"date":"2026-01-14T10:31:54","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T09:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/?p=14881"},"modified":"2026-01-15T15:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:00:14","slug":"violence-in-a-warming-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.prif.org\/en\/2026\/01\/14\/violence-in-a-warming-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Violence in a Warming World"},"content":{"rendered":"

Organized violence influences both the impacts of climate change and the politics of its mitigation. While questions often focus on whether climate hazards will spark new conflicts, a more effective approach \u2013<\/strong> highlighted in a recent Geopolitics article<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0prioritizes reducing the vulnerability of populations already affected by conflict,<\/strong>\u00a0adopting climate\u2011mitigation strategies for an increasingly violent world, and coordinating the disruptive effects of the energy transition for fossil\u2011fuel\u2011exporting nations.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is a widely held view among policymakers, journalists, and concerned citizens that climate change will lead to an increase of organized violence. Prominent figures \u2013 such as former UN Secretary\u2011General Ban Ki-moon<\/a>, the current British monarch<\/a>, or the Obama administration<\/a> \u2013 have suggested a link between climate change and armed conflict. However, the empirical support for this claim is weak.<\/p>\n

A 2019 survey<\/a> of scholars studying climate\u2011conflict dynamics found that most see climate change as playing only a minor role in conflict risk, and that its impact would remain limited unless global warming reaches about\u202f4\u202f\u00b0C \u2013 far beyond the 2\u202f\u00b0C target of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, a 2023 book<\/a> by PRIF researcher Tobias\u202fIde examined major disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, etc., not all climate\u2011related) and found they were just as likely to coincide with reductions in conflict intensity as with increases.<\/p>\n

However, while climate change itself may play only a minor direct role in sparking armed conflict, the two threats can amplify one another. Nations most vulnerable<\/a> to climate impacts are often small island states or low\u2011income countries with recent histories<\/a> of conflict. War devastates livelihoods, health systems, food security, and access to clean water \u2013 resources that are also essential for coping with and adapting to climate hazards. Long\u2011term infrastructure planning and public\u2011service investments needed for climate adaptation become extremely difficult amid active conflict.<\/p>\n

Military Emissions<\/h2>\n

Beyond the direct effects of climate change \u2013 such as droughts, floods, and other ecological shifts \u2013 organized violence also adds to the problem. Fighting uses a lot of energy and releases many greenhouse gases. In recent years, researchers and activists have tried to measure how much carbon is emitted when wars damage the environment. For example, they have counted the emissions from destroying forests in Vietnam<\/a> and large parts of Gaza<\/a>. One detailed study<\/a> looked at the war in Ukraine and found that, in the first 18\u202fmonths, the fighting released about\u202f77\u202fmillion tons of CO\u2082\u2011equivalent into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

Even after the fighting stops, rebuilding war\u2011torn areas typically produces far more emissions than the combat itself. Constructing new buildings, moving materials and creating infrastructure all demand large amounts of energy and release additional greenhouse gases. For example<\/a>, by the late 2010\u2019s, rebuilding buildings destroyed in Aleppo and Homs during the Syrian civil war would, amount to between a quarter and a half of Syria\u2019s annual emissions.<\/p>\n

A less obvious point is that most military\u2011related emissions do not come from the actual fighting itself, but from keeping armed forces ready for future conflicts. The 77\u202fmillion\u202ftons of CO\u2082\u2011equivalent attributed to the first 18\u202fmonths of the war in Ukraine<\/a> may sound like a lot, yet they represent only about 0.1% of all global emissions. To put this in context, the Center for Conflict and the Environment estimates that the entire defense sector \u2013 including all militaries worldwide \u2013 accounts for roughly 5.5\u202f% of global emissions.<\/p>\n

Climate Change Mitigation Politics<\/h2>\n

Beyond direct emissions from military activities, war and its preparation also shape the politics of climate\u2011change mitigation in pivotal ways. A striking example is the EU\u2019s policy shift after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. The loss of Russian gas turned renewable energy from a purely environmental objective into a security\u2011driven necessity. The RePower\u202fEU initiative<\/a> \u2013 adopted specifically to offset the loss of Russian gas \u2013 sets markedly higher renewable\u2011energy goals, highlighting how security concerns are reshaping and reinforcing climate\u2011mitigation priorities.<\/p>\n

A similar dynamic unfolded in the United States with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The legislation contains extensive subsidies for renewable\u2011energy generation, storage, transmission, and electric vehicles. Senator\u202fJoe\u202fManchin \u2013 whose decisive vote secured the bill \u2013 later cited<\/a> the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the catalyst for his support. The IRA was also propelled by concerns that China could outpace the U.S. in clean\u2011technology development, framing the legislation as a strategic response to a looming geopolitical challenge.<\/p>\n

Both initiatives signal a broader shift in climate\u2011mitigation policy from neoliberal, price\u2011based mechanisms toward securitized green industrial policy. Earlier efforts \u2013 EU, South Korean, and New\u202fZealand emissions\u2011trading schemes, Australia\u2019s brief carbon tax, and U.S. cap proposals \u2013 relied on market pricing to make carbon\u2011intensive options costlier and encourage low\u2011carbon alternatives. By contrast, the EU\u2019s RePower\u202fEU plan and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act direct public and private capital straight into renewable\u2011energy generation, storage, transmission, and electric\u2011vehicle infrastructure. In each case, security concerns are propelling a move away from pricing schemes toward an industrial\u2011policy approach that builds the necessary technological capacity.<\/p>\n

Climate Cooperation<\/h2>\n

In the short term, the heightened risks of warfare risks can push nations to bolster domestic energy security, often spurring greater investment in renewables \u2013 as seen in China during the 2010s and Europe in the 2020s. Yet those same security pressures complicate climate cooperation. The Arctic Council<\/a>, which addresses Arctic challenges including climate change, now fulfills only its minimal mandate. In 2022, China suspended<\/a> climate talks with the United States after a U.S. legislator visited Taiwan; talks resumed later that year only after extensive diplomatic de\u2011escalation. Achieving ambitious shared climate goals \u2013 such as phasing out fossil fuels and transforming agriculture \u2013 will require robust international collaboration. A world where the EU, U.S., China, Russia, and Japan are locked in conflict or preparing for it is, for now, ill\u2011suited to that cooperation.<\/p>\n

Effects of Climate Change Mitigation<\/h2>\n

In an optimistic scenario where rapid decarbonization succeeds, it will also reshape peace and security dynamics. Accelerating the shift to solar, wind, and battery technologies demands vast quantities of minerals that must be mined, refined, and processed. As NGOs, scholars, and citizens have warned, this surge in mineral extraction carries the same risks of violence in mining communities and broader social harms associated with traditional resource extraction.<\/p>\n

Many nations still depend on fossil\u2011fuel revenues to sustain their governments. The United Nations Environment Program identifies 40 \u201cfossil\u2011fuel\u2011dependent\u201d countries, where on average\u202f\u2248\u202f38\u202f% of public revenue and\u202f\u2248\u202f61\u202f% of exports derive from fossil fuel rents. Some \u2013 such as Saudi Arabia<\/a> \u2013 have already launched long\u2011term diversification strategies, though success is uncertain. Others lack the resources or political consensus to pursue similar reforms. Consequently, a rapid transition driven by falling fossil\u2011fuel prices could trigger profound structural adjustments and elevate the risk of conflict.<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Reviewing the interplay between organized violence and climate change yields three key lessons for citizens and policymakers. First, while climate change contributes modestly to conflict, violent conflict dramatically heightens vulnerability to climate impacts. Thus, the priority for the \u2018climate-security\u2019 agenda should be finding ways to reduce vulnerability for conflict\u2011affected populations. Second, climate mitigation efforts are unfolding in an increasingly violent world, and we cannot ignore this reality when strategizing to address climate change. Instead, we should leverage the energy\u2011security advantages of wind and solar, challenge wealthy nations that divert climate\u2011fund commitments to defense spending, and promote green\u2011technology transfers that reduce securitization. Third, even if short\u2011term energy\u2011security concerns do spur clean\u2011energy production, this alone will not achieve net\u2011zero emissions. The most challenging aspects, such as phasing out fossil fuels, still demand robust international cooperation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Organized violence influences both the impacts of climate change and the politics of its mitigation. While questions often focus on whether climate hazards will spark new conflicts, a more effective approach \u2013 highlighted in a recent Geopolitics article prioritizes reducing the vulnerability of populations already affected by conflict, \u2013 adopting climate\u2011mitigation strategies in an increasingly violent world, and coordinating the disruptive effects of the energy transition for fossil\u2011fuel\u2011exporting nations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":402,"featured_media":14879,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1125,1097],"tags":[1206,1079,1250,1197],"coauthors":[1425],"class_list":["post-14881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-en","category-socio-ecological-transformation-conflicts","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-security-policy","tag-military","tag-political-violence"],"acf":[],"views":248,"yoast_head":"\nViolence in a Warming World - 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