24. September 2025
Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland represents an escalation in the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare against NATO territory. While not first of its kind, the coordinated swarm attack by 19 drones represents an unprecedented test of European air defense and response mechanisms. The incident came as European defence officials were bracing for the resumption of joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus—exercises which in 2022 were used to screen preparations for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Background and Challenges
Russian drone violations of EU/NATO airspace have occurred sporadically since the Ukraine conflict began, with previous incidents reported in Romania, the Baltic states, and Poland. Occurring during one of Russia’s largest aerial assaults on Ukraine, the incursions of September 9-10, 2025, mark an unprecedented escalation in both scale and coordination, involving 19 separate airspace violations over seven hours.
The incident came as Russia prepared for the Zapad-2025 military exercises in Belarus, echoing a pattern that preceded Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which was launched under the cover of large-scale exercises in Belarus. The timing of the drone incursion suggests deliberate strategic coordination.
Poland’s subsequent invocation of NATO’s Article 4, only the eighth such action in history, underscores the gravity of the situation. While the deployment of Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS, and German Patriot systems demonstrated NATO’s integrated response capabilities, they also highlighted the economic and operational challenges of countering low-cost drone swarms with expensive interceptor systems.
The airspace violation forced closure of four major Polish airports while crashed drones scattered debris across multiple regions (including Oleśno, near the Baltic coast), highlighting the broader implications for European civilian infrastructure and the blurred lines between military operations and civilian security in modern hybrid warfare.
Testing Boundaries
The character of the incident suggests that it was primarily a reconnaissance and testing operation rather than a direct attack. Significantly, recovered drones contained no explosive payloads, confirming intelligence assessments that Russia was probing NATO’s air defense systems and studying decision-making processes. The operation would have provided Moscow with insights into European response mechanisms, such as which air bases were activated, response times from alert to interception, coordination protocols between NATO allies, and the effectiveness of integrated air defense systems. While European forces intercepted at least three drones, several others continued flying over Polish territory before crashing when they exhausted their fuel supplies. This pattern suggests the drones were programmed for maximum penetration and intelligence gathering rather than immediate destruction. The recovery of drones equipped with Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards further substantiates the assessment that this was a carefully planned intelligence operation designed to map European communication networks and defense responses.
Reacting to 19 separate violations of Polish air space required coordination between multiple NATO air forces, testing alliance cohesion and rapid response capabilities. The successful coordination between Polish, Dutch, Italian, and German forces demonstrated operational integration, but the economic cost of deploying high-value interceptors (up to $3 million interceptor missiles) against low-cost targets ($40,000 Shahed/Gerbera drones) exposes a fundamental asymmetry in current defense planning that Russia appears eager to exploit.
The timing of this incursion in the lead-up to Russian-Belarussian strategic military exercises Zapad-2025 follows a familiar Russian pattern of using military drills as cover for provocative actions. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was preceded by similar large-scale exercises that provided both operational cover and strategic deception.
This incident represents an evolution in Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against European targets, which has intensified significantly over the past three years. Russian forces have systematically targeted European infrastructure through ‘spoofing’ operations to deny, deceive, or degrade electronic systems for civilian aviation, maritime navigation, and critical infrastructure across the Baltic region. The drone incursion escalates this campaign from electronic warfare to physical violation of sovereign airspace with military assets.
The systematic nature of these provocations suggests that Russia is implementing a graduated escalation strategy designed to normalize violations of European security, all while testing NATO’s threshold for direct military response. Previous hybrid attacks—including cyberattacks on the servers of European political parties and parliaments, incendiary parcels in aircraft, Europe-wide sabotage, or low-level agents for various espionage activities—have generally received measured responses from NATO leaders, potentially encouraging Moscow to believe that incremental escalation can achieve strategic objectives without triggering decisive responses.
The recent incident has prompted immediate EU solidarity, with Commission President von der Leyen condemning Russia’s “reckless and unprecedented” violations in her State of the Union address. The timing of the attack underscores urgency behind the EU’s €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme, aimed at strengthening European defense capabilities by 2030.
Policy Implications
While enhanced air defense systems and the proposed “drone wall” along the EU’s eastern border represent necessary defensive measures, they address symptoms rather than root causes. The most effective deterrent would be providing Ukraine with long-range precision strike capabilities to target Russian production facilities manufacturing drone systems.
European governments’ response will directly influence Russia’s disposition towards future provocations. Moscow now views drone incursions as acceptable tools for testing NATO resolve and gathering intelligence. To deter further escalation the EU must elaborate a decisive response that imposes significant costs.
The adoption of direct airspace violations in Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign demonstrates that NATO requires a more comprehensive deterrence strategy. European leaders must recognize that verbal condemnations for this unprecedented violation may invite more dangerous escalations.
A previous version of this article (available here) was published on September 11, 2025, by the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University. The text was produced as part of the research project, PATTERN: How Does the Past Matter? The Russian War of Aggression Against Ukraine and the Cold War.
