There is a growing tendency in American politics to attribute Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran to his being misled by Netanyahu. While this may explain his choice, it obscures the structures that enable one person to destabilize global security with minimal domestic or international support. Moreover, narratives emphasizing external influence on Trump misrepresent the U.S.-Israel power balance and exaggerate the influence of pro-Israel organizations on American policy. This allows U.S.…

On 10 April, Djibouti will kick off one of the four elections in the Horn of Africa in 2026—Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan. Conflict trends across the region indicate that these upcoming elections will act as stress multipliers, amplifying existing tensions rather than creating new ones. This has the potential to worsen ongoing insurgencies and unresolved political disputes, and to significantly increase the risk of electoral violence. Drawing on recent peace and conflict research…

Sudan’s Blue Nile state is becoming a strategic node where the country’s civil war intersects with wider regional power competition. Allegations that neighboring Ethiopia has facilitated Rapid Support Forces (RSF) activity by opening its borders for the RSF to train its fighters and is permitting the United Arab Emirates to use Ethiopia’s airports for logistical transfer are exemplary of the geopolitical problems facing Sudan.

Trump’s Board of Peace (BoP) represents the most recent escalation of attacks on multilateral cooperation in the peace and security domain. However, instead of sounding the death knell for multilateral organizations, the BoP helps illustrate their durability. While Trump’s speech at the inaugural BoP conference may seem counterintuitive – advocating for future cooperation with the UN – this article argues that it reveals a persistent pattern: ad hoc organizations like the BoP must the co-opt…

Since Russia began its war of aggression against Ukraine four years ago there has not only been continuous fighting but also negotiations. Yet Europe has remained diplomatically hesitant. With US President Donald Trump at the helm, the US slipped into the role of power mediator. At this decisive turning point, Europeans failed to develop a […]

Since the US and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran, many in Israel have framed the conflict as the “last war”. Yet military action alone cannot secure long-term stability. Germany occupies a unique position in the context of European diplomacy, maintaining strong ties with both Washington and Jerusalem. Germany should be using its rapport with both administrations to persuade Israel to commit to a comprehensive process of confidence-building measures with both the…

In 2025, Benin was among the West African coastal countries most affected by extremist violence spreading from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. An attack on 17 April which killed 54 soldiers was only one of many such incidents. In past years, the Benin government has significantly increased its military presence in Northern regions and has set up various national initiatives to securitize its borders with Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. While containing violence geographically might be necessary…

The idea of publicly staged trials may appear grotesque or outdated to citizens of modern, functioning states. Yet, for non-state armed actors in contested environments, the power of judicial procedures may lie precisely in their visibility. By staging justice in open spaces and circulating images widely, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in northern Myanmar turn punishment into a public performance of order. Such visibility helps construct local legitimacy while signaling responsibility to…

Hezbollah has been severely weakened since 2024, having lost its longest-serving Secretary General and numerous founding-generation commanders. Now, faced with escalating war against its main backer Iran and potential disarmament by the Lebanese government, Hezbollah’s prospects are bleak. However, the organization is not defeated and can still cause havoc. Though weak, Hezbollah’s strategy of preventing its adversaries from winning over pursuing its own success means the organization remains…

European leaders should clearly oppose the American and Israeli attacks on Iran. Yet for the most part they have called for more negotiations and condemned Iran. While European leaders may appear to have several good reasons for failing to clearly oppose the attacks – such as recent mass repression carried out by the Iranian government and a desire to avoid antagonizing the Americans – these do not stand up to scrutiny. Supporting, or failing to oppose, an attack on a sovereign state possessing…