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Regime Competition in a Fragmented World

More than thirty years after the proclaimed “end of history” and the third wave of democratization, the world is once again marked by increased diversity in political regimes.

Foto: Katerina Pavlyuchkova via Unsplash | Unsplash Lizenz

The (re-)emergence of powerful authoritarian states like China and Russia and the trend of backsliding in seemingly consolidated democracies have created a more pluralistic and multipolar world, in which states with different political regime types increasingly view each other as competitors, seeking to prove the superiority of their own political and economic systems and to win the allegiance of third countries.

Regime competition affects many contemporary political dynamics, often with a direct relevance for peace and conflict issues. It entails two distinct, yet interrelated understandings of “competition”: one between powerful states and coalitions as a contest for international influence or even hegemony; and one regarding the performance of their respective political, economic and social systems, which undergirds claims to domestic legitimacy and international leadership among like-minded countries.

This blog series will explore both dimensions of regime competition and its many facets in more detail. It will feature contributions on issues like the origins and limits of recent Sino-Russian alignment, trends of decoupling and dissociation in East-West relations, strategic competition in Antarctica, a critical assessment of reform capacities across regime types in North Africa, regime-specific approaches to UN-agenda “Women, Peace and Security”, challenges to liberal democracy from global neo-authoritarian movements and the securitization of regime types in Eastern European and post-Soviet countries.

Archive

Deutsch, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World, Voting for Peace? PRIF Blog Series on the 2025 Federal Election4. February 2025 | Jonas Wolff, Irene Weipert-Fenner, Pascal Abb

Die Weltordnung und der Systemwettbewerb: Zur außenpolitischen Positionierung der Parteien im Bundestagswahlkampf

Der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine und die seither ausgerufene „Zeitenwende“ haben die Debatte über Deutschlands zukünftige Außenpolitik erkennbar zugespitzt. Auch im Bundestagswahlkampf positionieren sich die Parteien zu schwierigen Fragen: Wie sollen Frieden und Sicherheit wiedergewonnen werden? Wie verändert sich die Weltordnung, und wie sollte Deutschland darauf reagieren? Dabei kommen sie zu teils sehr unterschiedlichen Antworten, die allerdings meist nicht über eine generelle…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World20. December 2023 | Pascal Abb, Wrenn Yennie Lindgren

Do regime differences shape developmental engagement? How China and Japan compete in post-coup Myanmar

The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has left the country significantly isolated on the world stage. Politically, foreign governments have avoided recognizing the junta rulers, although quasi-official engagement is still underway. Economically, foreign investments into Myanmar have dropped by 42% from 2021 to 2022, off levels that had already massively decreased since the 2017 Rohingya expulsion. However, despite the international outcry over the new regime’s open warfare against civilians and the…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World10. October 2023 | Michelle Pace, Christian Achrainer

EU Democracy Support in the Southern Neighborhood: How the EU Contradicts its own Practices

For decades, the EU has declared that it aims to support democratization in its southern neighborhood. Yet, the EU’s cooperation with repressive rulers in other policy fields, such as energy, migration, security, and trade, contradicts the EU’s own democracy support objectives. European policymakers have apparently not learnt from the pre-2011 period. As we argue in our project SHAPEDEM-EU, the EU must embark on a journey of un-, de- and re-learning, and it must avoid contradicting practices in…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World24. August 2023 | Jonas Wolff

Debating Foreign Interference in a Multipolar World: Is the EU Becoming Illiberal?

The ways in which foreign interference by China, Russia and others are currently discussed in Brussels indicate that the EU is considering moving away from liberal principles in the area of international civil society support and the foreign funding of NGOs in particular. Based on a co-authored comment in the Heidelberg Journal of International Law, this blog post argues that it is helpful to read the current EU debate on foreign interference in the light of the ongoing, conflict-ridden…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World26. July 2023 | Jonas J. Driedger

“Russian Self-Defense”? Fact-Checking Arguments on the Russo-Ukrainian War by John J. Mearsheimer and Others

In the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, and in the wider Russo-Western conflict, both sides compete over international influence as well as over how Ukraine and Russia are governed. While most would agree with this general assessment, prominent scholars like John J. Mearsheimer and others have argued that the West caused these confrontations by aggressively expanding its influence and preferred regime type into Ukraine, thus forcing Russia’s hand. However, while Russia’s perceptions of NATO…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World19. July 2023 | Pascal Abb

Germany’s New China Strategy: A Defensive Shift

After a lengthy process of internal deliberation, the German government released its China strategy on July 13. The document signals a policy shift away from the business-focused approach taken by previous governments, and towards a “de-risking” of ties with China. It also reframes the relationship by stressing elements of competition and even rivalry, based on the perception that Chinese authoritarianism is becoming a threat to Germany and its role in the world. Instead of seeking to transform…

Deutsch, National Security Strategy, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World17. July 2023 | Pascal Abb, Hanna Pfeifer, Irene Weipert-Fenner, Jonas Wolff

Nicht darüber reden ist auch keine Lösung: Die Rolle von Autokratie und Demokratie in der Nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie

Mit dem Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine wurde das Narrativ eines globalen Wettstreits zwischen Demokratien und Autokratien wiederbelebt, das bereits im Zuge des Aufstiegs Chinas an Bedeutung gewonnen hatte. Im März 2022 hatte auch Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock noch von einem „Bündnis von liberalen Demokratien weltweit“ gesprochen, das es gegen die Diktaturen dieser Welt zu schließen gelte. Etwas mehr als ein Jahr später hat die Bundesregierung nun ihre Nationale…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World22. May 2023 | Yiqi Zhou

The Power of Not Using Power: China and the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement

The intensifying systemic rivalry between great powers also involves contesting the most effective approaches to conflict resolution and mediation. The most recent Beijing-mediated détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran has ignited heated debates regarding its longevity and China’s rising profile in the region. While the Middle East may still be a region largely inhospitable to outsider mediation, there are three good reasons why Beijing’s latest foray into Middle East peace diplomacy may be…

English, PRIF Spotlight, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World15. May 2023 | Patrick Flamm

Is Antarctica Still Exceptional? The Case for “Co-opetition” at the South Pole

Antarctic diplomacy has famously shielded the continent of peace, science, and environmental protection from outside conflict and war. This “exceptionalism” is now being tested by Russia’s war against Ukraine and the belief that international strategic competition between great powers is spilling over into the Antarctic. In order to keep the Antarctic exceptional, however, it would be wise to refocus on what has made Antarctic diplomacy so successful in the first place: cooperation in order to…

English, Regime Competition in a Fragmented World24. April 2023 | Matthias Dembinski, Dirk Peters

Decoupling and the “New Cold War”: Cautionary Lessons from the Past

An emerging “new Cold War” appears to pit democracies, led by the US, against autocracies, led by Russia and China. But the analogy between today’s regime competition and that of the “old” Cold War is deceptive. China and Russia today are much more closely intertwined with Western democracies than the Soviet Union ever was. These linkages will complicate the conflict considerably. There is already growing pressure to engage in “decoupling”, that is, to break these interdependencies. Research on…