The US Presidential Election 2024

As the new U.S. administration pivots toward negotiating a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, the growing nuclear threat from Russia demands urgent attention. Drawing on Cold War history and negotiation research, this analysis highlights how arms control – formal or informal – can help curb nuclear risks even in the most volatile crises. German and transatlantic policy makers should therefore integrate practical arms control and risk reduction measures into ceasefire discussions to safeguard…

Nun ist es Gewissheit: Donald J. Trump wird die USA für eine weitere Amtszeit regieren. Viel wurde in den vergangenen Wochen über Trumps Wahlkampfstrategie diskutiert. Obwohl der Erfolg auf eine Vielzahl von Faktoren zurückzuführen ist, steht fest: Trump hat mit enormen Mobilisierungsaufwand die spezifische Zielgruppe junger Männer adressiert. Die Auftritte fanden häufig über sogenannte Alternativmedien in einem maskulinen, heterosexuellen und gewaltaffinen Umfeld mit rechtsoffenen bis…

The upcoming U.S. elections signal a potential shift in U.S.-Korean relations. While Kamala Harris would likely continue President Biden’s focus on sanctions and deterrence, Donald Trump might just as easily revive diplomatic talks as cause another flare-up of tensions on the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, South Korea is concerned about U.S. security commitments and currently debating whether to pursue its own nuclear deterrent. The Washington Declaration reaffirms U.S.-South Korean…

Die USA sind der wichtigste Verbündete Israels, doch die Kriegführung Israels im Gaza-Streifen stellt diese Jahrzehnte währende „besondere Beziehung“ derzeit auf eine Belastungsprobe. Nun stehen die US-Wahlen an: Wie würden sich Trump und Harris im Falle ihrer Wahl gegenüber dem Gaza-Krieg und dem israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikt positionieren? Und würden die Unterschiede zwischen ihnen tatsächlich einen Unterschied machen mit Blick auf eine langfristige Lösung des Konflikts?

The United States has long been the most vital ally for Ukraine in terms of military aid, economic support, and pressuring Russia through sanctions and diplomatic initiatives. Consequently, both Kyiv and Moscow look primarily to the United States when it comes to the international politics of the war. Due to the outsized role of the United States in this conflict, commentators have predicted that the course of the war would shift if Donald J. Trump would be elected US president on 5 November.…

The upcoming US presidential elections will serve as a stress test for election administration. Election denialism, (violent) threats and harassment, and concerns about foreign influence have shaped previous electoral environments. The 2022 midterm elections provided insights into the resilience of the electoral process and the state of implementation of a substantial new legislative package that was introduced after the 2020 presidential elections. While some challenges remain, the electoral…

No matter who wins the US presidential elections in November, the United States will likely continue a more confrontative China policy launched under Trump in 2017. A second Trump administration, however, would likely mean an end to the Biden-era “guardrails” against escalation. It would also make it much harder for Europe to assert its own interests and conduct an independent China policy.

In terms of foreign and security policy, the pivot to Asia will define the tenure of the next US administration. However, strategic competition at the global level between the US, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia will not leave the Africa policy of either the Democratic or the Republican side untouched. This post will look at the future Africa policies of the two parties and how they may affect partnerships on the continent as well as multilateral approaches more broadly.

On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced that he would be dropping out of the race, only a week after the assassination attempt on now official Republican candidate, Donald Trump. The electoral campaign which has so far been characterized by immense uncertainty, provides a perfect breeding ground for the spread of disinformation about the candidates and election process itself. As the stakes of the upcoming US elections remain incredibly high for both domestic and international politics,…

The potential re-election of Donald Trump would be a setback for the US climate policy of recent years. Although emissions reductions remain insufficient, climate policy has been a priority under President Joe Biden. The attempts to find a cooperative format with China despite geopolitical tensions deserve special attention, as I argue in this blog post. This approach could also set an example for European and German foreign policy if Trump is re-elected. In any case, Germany and Europe must…