Two men sit on chairs and shake hands facing each other. American and Russian Flags in the background.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands at a meeting in Finland, 16 July 2018. | Photo: © picture alliance/AP Photo | Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Reducing Nuclear Threats: Why Talks on Ending the War in Ukraine Should Include Agreements on Nuclear Risk Reduction

As the new U.S. administration pivots toward negotiating a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, the growing nuclear threat from Russia demands urgent attention. Drawing on Cold War history and negotiation research, this analysis highlights how arms control – formal or informal – can help curb nuclear risks even in the most volatile crises. German and transatlantic policy makers should therefore integrate practical arms control and risk reduction measures into ceasefire discussions to safeguard European security and prevent nuclear escalation.

Weiterlesen

Donald Trump, Dana White und Mike Johnson bei der UFC
Donald Trump und Dana White sind in der Mixed-Martial Arts Liga nicht unbekannt. | Foto: Office of Speaker Mike Johnson via Wikimedia Commons | Public domain

Trump, White, Rogan – Männlichkeit, Härte und Faschismus: eine nicht ganz so neue Verbindung toxischer Männlichkeitskultur

Nun ist es Gewissheit: Donald J. Trump wird die USA für eine weitere Amtszeit regieren. Viel wurde in den vergangenen Wochen über Trumps Wahlkampfstrategie diskutiert. Obwohl der Erfolg auf eine Vielzahl von Faktoren zurückzuführen ist, steht fest: Trump hat mit enormen Mobilisierungsaufwand die spezifische Zielgruppe junger Männer adressiert. Die Auftritte fanden häufig über sogenannte Alternativmedien in einem maskulinen, heterosexuellen und gewaltaffinen Umfeld mit rechtsoffenen bis rechtsextremen Persönlichkeiten statt. Dies gilt es ernst zu nehmen und in einem multifaktoriellen Kontext zu analysieren.

Weiterlesen

Soldiers at the Korean Demilitarized Zone
Tensions in the Korean Demilitarized Zone and the whole Peninsula could flare up under a Trump presidency. | Photo: Roamme via flickr | CC BY-SA 2.0

U.S. Elections and Their Potential Impact on U.S.-Korean Relations

The upcoming U.S. elections signal a potential shift in U.S.-Korean relations. While Kamala Harris would likely continue President Biden’s focus on sanctions and deterrence, Donald Trump might just as easily revive diplomatic talks as cause another flare-up of tensions on the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, South Korea is concerned about U.S. security commitments and currently debating whether to pursue its own nuclear deterrent. The Washington Declaration reaffirms U.S.-South Korean cooperation, but the conservative security proposal, Project 2025, hints at potential reductions in U.S. military presence. These developments raise questions about South Korea’s security and the broader stability of East Asia.

Weiterlesen

Eine Gruppe Menschen sitzt um einen großen Konferenztisch herum. Auf der linken Seite sitzt eine US-Delegation um Kamala Harris,auf der rechten Seite sitzt eine israelische Delegation um Benjamin Netanjahu
Die Kriegführung Israels im Gaza-Streifen stellt die „besondere Beziehung“ auf eine Belastungsprobe. | Foto: Office of the Vice President of the United States via Wikimedia Commons | Public domain

Unterschiede, die keinen Unterschied machen? Trump, Harris und der israelisch-palästinensische Konflikt

Die USA sind der wichtigste Verbündete Israels, doch die Kriegführung Israels im Gaza-Streifen stellt diese Jahrzehnte währende „besondere Beziehung“ derzeit auf eine Belastungsprobe. Nun stehen die US-Wahlen an: Wie würden sich Trump und Harris im Falle ihrer Wahl gegenüber dem Gaza-Krieg und dem israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikt positionieren? Und würden die Unterschiede zwischen ihnen tatsächlich einen Unterschied machen mit Blick auf eine langfristige Lösung des Konflikts?

Weiterlesen

Zelensky addresses Congress. | Image: picture alliance / ZUMAPRESS.com | Ukraine Presidency/Ukrainian Pre

How Another Trump Presidency Would Affect the Russo-Ukrainian War

The United States has long been the most vital ally for Ukraine in terms of military aid, economic support, and pressuring Russia through sanctions and diplomatic initiatives. Consequently, both Kyiv and Moscow look primarily to the United States when it comes to the international politics of the war. Due to the outsized role of the United States in this conflict, commentators have predicted that the course of the war would shift if Donald J. Trump would be elected US president on 5 November. But what is the merit of such forecasts?

Weiterlesen

Sticker I Voted with US flag and PRIFblog tag US Elections 2024
The electoral infrastructure is ready to face Donald Trump’s potential claims of rigged elections. | Image: GPA Photo Archive via flickr | CC BY-NC 2.0

Securing the Vote: How the US Elections Have Become More Resilient to Threats to Election Integrity

The upcoming US presidential elections will serve as a stress test for election administration. Election denialism, (violent) threats and harassment, and concerns about foreign influence have shaped previous electoral environments. The 2022 midterm elections provided insights into the resilience of the electoral process and the state of implementation of a substantial new legislative package that was introduced after the 2020 presidential elections. While some challenges remain, the electoral infrastructure is ready to face Donald Trump’s potential claims of vote rigging and election denial.

Weiterlesen

Kinder schwenken amerikanische und chinesische Flaggen
Regardless of the election outcome, China-US relations will remain one of the world’s most serious fault lines. | Photo: PAS China via flickr | PDM

Going over the Guardrails? China Policy in the 2024 US Election

No matter who wins the US presidential elections in November, the United States will likely continue a more confrontative China policy launched under Trump in 2017. A second Trump administration, however, would likely mean an end to the Biden-era “guardrails” against escalation. It would also make it much harder for Europe to assert its own interests and conduct an independent China policy.

Weiterlesen

A group of people sits at a table facing each other.
The Biden-Harris administration reorganized USAID to promote global order and demonstrate reliability. | Image: USAID via flickr | CC BY-NC 2.0

The New US Administrations’ Africa Policies: What to Expect and Why it Matters

In terms of foreign and security policy, the pivot to Asia will define the tenure of the next US administration. However, strategic competition at the global level between the US, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia will not leave the Africa policy of either the Democratic or the Republican side untouched. This post will look at the future Africa policies of the two parties and how they may affect partnerships on the continent as well as multilateral approaches more broadly.

Weiterlesen

Five people and a dog are seen outlined in orange, against an orange background. Two of the people talk to each other, one stands along with a stick, one walks a dog, and the other is in a wheelchair. All of them look at their mobile phones intently, and all cast shadows on the ground. The shadows are made up of network diagrams, being representative, rather than literal shadows.
Jamillah Knowles & Reset.Tech Australia / Better Images of AI / People on phones (portrait) / Licenced by CC-BY 4.0

Going to the Polls (Dis)Informed? The Role of Disinformation in the Upcoming US Elections

On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced that he would be dropping out of the race, only a week after the assassination attempt on now official Republican candidate, Donald Trump. The electoral campaign which has so far been characterized by immense uncertainty, provides a perfect breeding ground for the spread of disinformation about the candidates and election process itself. As the stakes of the upcoming US elections remain incredibly high for both domestic and international politics, disinformation is becoming one of the most pressing challenges of our time.

Weiterlesen

Sunny garden with cacti, surrounded by trees, with a sign that says "Sunnylands 37977"
Sunnylands, California: The US–China cooperation can serve as a role model for Germany and Europe. | Photo: Randy Heinitz via flickr | CC BY 2.0

With or Without you: Climate Policy After the US Elections

The potential re-election of Donald Trump would be a setback for the US climate policy of recent years. Although emissions reductions remain insufficient, climate policy has been a priority under President Joe Biden. The attempts to find a cooperative format with China despite geopolitical tensions deserve special attention, as I argue in this blog post. This approach could also set an example for European and German foreign policy if Trump is re-elected. In any case, Germany and Europe must assume even greater responsibility and leadership in this policy area. This means meeting their own commitments and helping others to do the same.

Weiterlesen