The upcoming US presidential elections will serve as a stress test for election administration. Election denialism, (violent) threats and harassment, and concerns about foreign influence have shaped previous electoral environments. The 2022 midterm elections provided insights into the resilience of the electoral process and the state of implementation of a substantial new legislative package that was introduced after the 2020 presidential elections. While some challenges remain, the electoral infrastructure is ready to face Donald Trump’s potential claims of vote rigging and election denial.
In only a few weeks, US citizen will head to the polls. The states’ election administrations across the country have been preparing for this election for months already –from ordering ballots to setting up polling stations and conducting voter education. They are well prepared. The integrity of the elections in the US were put into question by former President Trump. Donald Trump has persistently cast doubt on the integrity of the US electoral system, eroding public confidence by claiming that elections were “stolen” and “rigged”. The controversy reached a peak during the 2020 presidential election, when Trump made a series of controversial claims about the electoral process. These included allegations of voter fraud and rigging of the election. Additionally, Trump refused to concede defeat, contributing to a sense of a crisis of legitimacy in the United States. Finally, the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, led to further turmoil and shock. Even during the 2022 midterm elections, controversial claims of stolen elections, so-called election denialism, were among the campaign themes, especially among Republican candidates and legislators.
Challenges to US Election Integrity since 2000
Over the past 25 years, the United States has faced significant challenges to its electoral integrity, including the potential for electoral fraud, the spread of disinformation and misinformation during elections, threats of (Russian) foreign interference, and voter suppression. These issues have contributed to a decline in voter trust in the electoral system and put the system under pressure. More specifically, polarization over electoral processes and norms intensified following the 2000 Bush v. Gore Florida Supreme Court’s decision regarding the recount in Florida. It has only increased with Trump’s entry into the presidential race in 2015.
The main challenges to election integrity observed since then were related to shortcomings in electoral laws, campaign finance, district boundaries, electoral violence, campaign media, discrimination against minority communities, women, persons with disabilities, and felons. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Elections and Human Rights (ODIHR) as the main regional governmental organization plays an important role in international election observation within OSCE Participating States, including the United States and Germany. The activities of the OSCE/ODIHR include election observation and recommendations on how to improve the electoral process and integrity, but implementation is the sole responsibility of the participating State. For example, in its final report on the 2020 presidential elections, the OSCE/ODIHR recommends, as in previous cases, a review of the Electoral Colleges system with regard to the equality of votes and the establishment of independent redistricting commissions, as gerrymandering remains a concern that affects the competitiveness of the elections and the equality of votes. Furthermore, the OSCE/ODIHR encourages promoting the electoral participation and rights of women and persons with disabilities by ratifying the United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD). In terms of electoral legislation, the OSCE/ODIHR recommends codifying electoral procedures at the federal level, such as early voting deadlines, establishing the rights of observers in line with the Copenhagen Document, reviewing restrictions on the right to vote for persons with criminal convictions, and establishing measures to lower the number of unregistered voters. In addition to these challenges, increased polarization and a hostile environment fueled by former President Trump resulted in cases of harassment, threats, and violence against candidates and election officials, which affected the recruitment of election workers. Cases of voter intimidation were also reported.
Mitigation Strategies: A More Resilient US Election Administration
Since 2020, the United States has allocated a significant amount of resources to improving its electoral process, with the aim of enhancing its resilience to internal and external threats. While the overarching federal legal framework – whose foundation is built on the Constitution and several pieces of federal legislation – has remained the same since the 2020 election, states have enacted more than 400 new bills or amendments since the last election. The legal framework governing the management of elections at the state level has resulted in the implementation of varying procedures within each state.
To help mitigate threats against election workers and officials, Congress allocated funds for election security for the 2022 midterm elections. Furthermore, a joint task force of the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation was established to identify, mitigate and investigate threats against election workers. The funds were, however, not considered sufficient and investigations on the federal level were limited due to restrictions in legislation. In a further attempt to address concerns about the electoral integrity, state and county election officials invested in voter education and outreach. However, the number of voter inquiries on election procedures and fake news received by election officials was often perceived as an additional burden due to lack of additional resources. Particularly on district level, however, efforts to combat disinformation through direct contact with voters were regarded as effective. For example, at the state level, the Kentucky’s GOP Secretary of State (SoS) launched a voter information campaign together with the State Election Board to confront conspiracy theory and election fraud claims during the 2022 midterm elections.
Expansion of Cybersecurity and New Voting Technology Infrastructure
To enhance the resilience of the electoral infrastructure and in response to the Florida recount, investments in new election technology started already with the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) of 2002. HAVA introduced the use of new voting technologies (NTV) in the form of ballot scanners integrated with automatic counting, tabulation and voter-verified paper audit trails. These technologies are currently used in nearly all US states (90 per cent of all ballots cast), except for six states that require voters to cast their votes on electronic devices only. Only a small number of smaller states still use hand-counted paper ballots, marking a significant transition from the Ballot Marking Devices and punch cards that were previously used, which did not allow for manual ballot marking.
In the aftermath of the 2016 election, the use of voting machines was the subject of considerable debate, with concerns raised about the potential for hacking and the spreading of malicious codes to election equipment. To mitigate the potential for cyberattacks on the election infrastructure, the cybersecurity infrastructure has been significantly expanded. As one step, the Department of Homeland Security declared election infrastructure as critical infrastructure in 2017, acknowledging the importance of the election infrastructure to US democracy and making secure and resilient elections one of its highest priorities. A cybersecurity toolkit and resources guide election administration at the state level. Individual initiatives have been taken by states to improve cybersecurity, such as in Kentucky, where the House Bill 574 prohibits connecting ballot scanner devices to the internet, and makes it a felony to do so.
Looking ahead to the Presidential Elections 2024: Cause for Optimism
Since the 2020 elections, the US government has devoted significant resources to enhancing electoral integrity. The combination of investments in secure infrastructure, outreach campaigns and voter engagement and information appear to be having a positive impact. In particular, since the most recent presidential election in 2020, significant efforts have been made to counteract election denialism, enhance cybersecurity, and mitigate the risk of election violence. The 2022 midterms were regarded as a stress test for the upcoming presidential elections. They were managed in a professional manner, as evidenced by the OSCE/ODIHR final report. The US electoral system has demonstrated its ability to withstand and adapt to a range of external and internal challenges. Hence, there is reason to be optimistic about the upcoming presidential election, at least with regard to the resilience of the electoral system. If Donald Trump and his supporters again question the electoral process and its outcome, election officials at the state level are ready to address any alleged claims. However, not all concerns could be addressed and there is room for improvement. For example, the coordination among the states and between the federal and state level still needs to be improved. Concerns also remain about attempts to undermine voter confidence in the electoral process, attempts of foreign inference, the persistence of polarization, and the use of harsh rhetoric on the campaign remain. Voters in America are generally confident that the elections are fair. However, partisan differences remain with Republicans and GOP-leaning voters being less confident. The Kentucky GOP has demonstrated best practices for improving election integrity as a Republican.
What Can Germany Learn from the Resilience of the US Electoral System?
The way the US government has refined its electoral process, categorizing elections and election infrastructure as part of the critical infrastructure, may serve as a beneficial case study for enhancing the integrity of the German electoral system. In light of the recent surge in support for right-wing parties in most of the eastern German states, it would be prudent for the German electoral administration to anticipate potential challenges and develop contingency plans to address the risk of polarization and threats to electoral integrity. This entails making the electoral process less vulnerable to human error and improving the processes of voting, counting, and tabulation. The advantage of a fully paper-based election system is that it offers fewer opportunities for cyberattacks. However, it relies on human resources. It is therefore worth noting that the German system relies heavily on the trust and goodwill of election officials. There are ways to improve the security and efficiency of the election infrastructure, and the United States provides a good case study.
OSCE/ODIHR, Elections in the United States of America, OSCE/ODIHR reports.
Pippa Norris, Electoral Integrity in the 2020 U.S. Elections, Harvard University.
Rebecca Wagner
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