The upcoming US presidential elections will serve as a stress test for election administration. Election denialism, (violent) threats and harassment, and concerns about foreign influence have shaped previous electoral environments. The 2022 midterm elections provided insights into the resilience of the electoral process and the state of implementation of a substantial new legislative package that was introduced after the 2020 presidential elections. While some challenges remain, the electoral infrastructure is ready to face Donald Trump’s potential claims of vote rigging and election denial.
Schlagwort: USA
Going over the Guardrails? China Policy in the 2024 US Election
No matter who wins the US presidential elections in November, the United States will likely continue a more confrontative China policy launched under Trump in 2017. A second Trump administration, however, would likely mean an end to the Biden-era “guardrails” against escalation. It would also make it much harder for Europe to assert its own interests and conduct an independent China policy.
The New US Administrations’ Africa Policies: What to Expect and Why it Matters
In terms of foreign and security policy, the pivot to Asia will define the tenure of the next US administration. However, strategic competition at the global level between the US, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia will not leave the Africa policy of either the Democratic or the Republican side untouched. This post will look at the future Africa policies of the two parties and how they may affect partnerships on the continent as well as multilateral approaches more broadly.
Going to the Polls (Dis)Informed? The Role of Disinformation in the Upcoming US Elections
On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced that he would be dropping out of the race, only a week after the assassination attempt on now official Republican candidate, Donald Trump. The electoral campaign which has so far been characterized by immense uncertainty, provides a perfect breeding ground for the spread of disinformation about the candidates and election process itself. As the stakes of the upcoming US elections remain incredibly high for both domestic and international politics, disinformation is becoming one of the most pressing challenges of our time.
Ein ungewöhnlicher Gefangenenaustausch: Win-Win oder ein gefährlicher Präzedenzfall?
Der am 1. August 2024 in Istanbul durchgeführte Austausch von insgesamt 26 Personen zwischen Russland und mehreren westlichen Ländern ist einer der größten und ungewöhnlichsten Austausche von Gefangenen seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges. Die Entscheidung, zehn russische Agenten im Gegenzug für die Freilassung von 16 in Russland und Belarus inhaftierten russischen und westlichen Politikern und Journalisten aus der Haft zu entlassen, stößt jedoch vor allem in Deutschland auf heftige Kritik.
With or Without you: Climate Policy After the US Elections
The potential re-election of Donald Trump would be a setback for the US climate policy of recent years. Although emissions reductions remain insufficient, climate policy has been a priority under President Joe Biden. The attempts to find a cooperative format with China despite geopolitical tensions deserve special attention, as I argue in this blog post. This approach could also set an example for European and German foreign policy if Trump is re-elected. In any case, Germany and Europe must assume even greater responsibility and leadership in this policy area. This means meeting their own commitments and helping others to do the same.
US-amerikanische Nuklearwaffenpolitik nach der US-Wahl 2024: Das Ende der nuklearen Abrüstung?
Seit Ende des Kalten Krieges haben die Vereinigten Staaten die Größe ihres Nuklearwaffenarsenal signifikant reduziert. Doch vor der US-Wahl 2024 zeichnet sich ein dramatischer Kurswechsel ab: Während Russland mit dem Einsatz von Kernwaffen in der Ukraine droht, bauen China und Nordkorea ihre Nuklearwaffenarsenale stetig aus. Sollten die drei Staaten weiterhin kein Interesse an Rüstungskontrollverhandlungen mit Washington zeigen, könnten deshalb auch die Vereinigten Staaten ihr Nuklearwaffenarsenal zum ersten Mal seit Jahrzehnten wieder vergrößern – und zwar unabhängig davon, wer die Wahl gewinnt. Eine demokratische Administration würde aller Voraussicht nach aber deutlich maßvoller vorgehen als eine republikanische Regierung.
Kein Innehalten und keine Zäsur – es geht einfach weiter
US-Präsidentschaftskandidat Donald J. Trump entgeht einem Attentat. Bereits Sekunden nach der Tat ballt Trump die Hand zur Faust und fordert seine Anhänger auf, den Kampf fortzuführen. Er schafft ein ikonisches Bild, das den weiteren Wahlkampf und den Ausgang der Wahl beeinflussen wird. Gleichzeitig illustriert die Geste unmittelbar, dass dieses Attentat wohl nicht zu einer notwendigen Zäsur in diesem Wahlkampf führen wird.
Preparing for the Worst: A PRIF Blog Series on the US Elections in November
The presidential elections in the United States this November come with incredibly high stakes – both for US democracy and for US allies across the world. A new PRIF blog series on the consequences of the elections will address the possible fallout of a second Trump term for PRIF’s research areas and examine ways that German and European policymakers could prepare for and respond to the elections.
Court Orders Dutch Government to halt the Export of F-35 Parts to Israel: Implications for the War in Gaza and Beyond
In a landmark ruling in mid-February, the Hague Court of Appeal ordered the Dutch government to stop exporting parts for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II to Israel, citing the risk of serious violations of international humanitarian law if the F-35 were used for airstrikes in Gaza. Although it seems unlikely that the court order will have any significant impact on Israeli air operations, it raises a number of legal and political challenges to the global F-35 program, the U.S. Department of Defense’s most ambitious and most expensive weapons program to date.
