Tag: Russia

Lost in Transition? Putin’s Strategy for 2024

Written on 30. January 2020. Posted in English, PRIF Spotlight, Series.

Speculations about “Транзит“ or transfer of power have circulated in the Russian mass media since Vladimir Putin got elected as the President of the Russian Federation for the fourth time in March 2018. The turbulent political events of the first weeks of 2020 shed some light on Putin’s strategy for his future. In case he chooses to leave the president’s chair, he will hardly be able to fully control the handover of power and will likely face some unintended consequences.

What Does the Normandy Summit Mean for the Peace Process in Ukraine?

Written on 12. December 2019. Posted in English.

The beginning of conflict in Eastern Ukraine is nearing its sixth anniversary. The concerted effort of Russian, French, German and Ukrainian leaders to settle this issue diplomatically has yielded few tangible results so far. The recent meeting in Paris of four leaders gives ground for cautious optimism. What have the parties agreed upon? What problems remain and what has changed since the last round of Normandy negotiations?

Dunkle Wolken am Offenen Himmel. Verlassen die USA den Open Skies Treaty?

Written on 11. December 2019. Posted in Deutsch, PRIF Spotlight.

Steht nach dem Ende des INF-Vertrages der nächste Meilenstein der Rüstungskontrolle vor dem Aus? Laut der rüstungsnahen und gemeinhin gut informierten Zeitschrift „Defense News“ konfrontierte die US-Regierung Mitte November Verbündete mit ihrer schon länger vermuteten Absicht¹, aus dem Open Skies Treaty (OST), dem Vertrag über den Offenen Himmel, auszutreten.² Das zentrale Argument: Der Vertrag gefährde die nationale Sicherheit der USA und er könne durch den Rückgriff auf eigene hochauflösende Satellitenbilder ersetzt werden. Es heißt, dass die USA den Schritt für Januar 2020 angekündigt hätten. Noch vor wenigen Wochen hatten sich die Europäer für einen US-Verbleib stark gemacht, denn nach dem INF-Vertrag droht nun einem nächsten Pfeiler europäischer Sicherheit das Ende.

Chernobyl’s Fallout, Beyond Radiation

Written on 17. July 2019. Posted in English.

“What’s it like, radiation? Maybe they show it in the movies? Have you seen it? Is it white, or what? Some people say it has no color and no smell, and other people say that it’s black. Like earth. But if it’s colorless, then it’s like God. God is everywhere, but you can’t see Him.” Like so many others affected by the meltdown at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the interviewee in Svetlana Alexievich’s Voices from Chernobyl, struggled to grasp how something too small to be perceived by our senses could have such an enormous effect on human affairs.

“It is not enough to diagnose a crisis – we also have to actively deal with it.” An interview with Nils Schmid

Written on 8. May 2019. Posted in English, European Security in Times of Changing Global Order.

A crisis or even the end of the liberal, multilateral world order is a frequently-heard diagnosis these days. In her interview with Nils Schmid, Member of Parliament for the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), Vera Rogova asks about possible coping strategies, Chinese and Russian influence and Germany’s current and future role in international politics.

“Unfortunately for all of us, the world did not go the ‘European way’”. An interview with Sergey Karaganov

Written on 7. May 2019. Posted in English, European Security in Times of Changing Global Order.

The state of European security was an important topic at this years's Schlangenbad Talks. Vera Rogova talked to Prof. Sergey Karaganov (National Research University – Higher School of Economics. Moscow) about the usefulness of arms control and challenges to the Liberal World Order.

“Recalibrating European security”?: A reply

Written on 3. May 2019. Posted in English, European Security in Times of Changing Global Order.

Hans-Joachim Spanger rightly points to the main challenges to European security emphasizing that new challenges could only be adequately addressed against the backdrop of the global political changes of the last ten to twenty years. He makes a worrying diagnosis of the current state of European security, and provides some practical recommendations for improving the situation. However, we should not give up upon the existing order with its liberal norms and principles so quickly as this would strengthen those actors that seek to undermine it.

Die Schlangenbader Gespräche als Forum für die deutsch-russischen Beziehungen

Written on 25. April 2019. Posted in Deutsch, European Security in Times of Changing Global Order.

Die Schlangenbader Gespräche werden häufig als Stimmungsbarometer für die deutsch-russischen Beziehungen bezeichnet. Seit 1998 treffen sich dort jährlich hochkarätige TeilnehmerInnen aus Politik, Wissenschaft, Militär und den Medien um sich über aktuelle Herausforderungen auszutauschen – dieses Jahr zum Thema „Die liberale Weltordnung am Ende? Herausforderungen europäischer Selbstbehauptung“.

Ways out of the crisis: recalibrating European security

Written on 23. April 2019. Posted in English, European Security in Times of Changing Global Order.

European security is in crisis. Like every crisis, this one not only has a prior history, it has also been in the offing for quite some time. 2008 marked a first peak, after the Bush administration offered the NATO Membership Action Plan to Georgia and Ukraine: Russia demonstrated in the war with Georgia who sets the tone in the former Soviet Union. A similar pattern emerged in 2014 in the Ukrainian crisis, this time with the EU in charge and Russia reacting even more forcefully. Since then, the crisis has escalated with almost unrestrained momentum. Its most recent expression is the termination of the INF Treaty, which carries with it the acute danger of a new (medium-range) missile crisis on the continent.

Hornberger Schießen in Helsinki

Written on 18. July 2018. Posted in Deutsch.

Am 16. Juli hat der lang erwartete und vieldiskutierte Gipfel von Vladimir Putin und Donald Trump stattgefunden. Es war das erste bilaterale Aufeinandertreffen der beiden Präsidenten, die sich zuvor lediglich am Rande des G20- Gipfels in Hamburg sowie des APEC-Gipfels in Da Nang, Vietnam, begegnet waren. Die Liste möglicher Themen und Konfliktfelder, die dringend einer Abstimmung zwischen den beiden Großmächten bedurft hätten, ist lang: nukleares Wettrüsten, regionales Konfliktmanagement in Ukraine und Syrien, gegenseitige Vorwürfe der Einmischung in innere Angelegenheiten oder Fragen der Cybersicherheit. Doch was ist von dieser Agenda übriggeblieben?

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