Without a Caliphate, But Far from Defeated: Why Da’esh/ISIS Remains a Threat in Syria in 2025
Since the fall of its self-proclaimed caliphate in 2019, ISIS remains a persistent threat in Syria. As of 2025, according to US estimates, more than 2,500 active fighters continue to operate in Syria and Iraq, while thousands of battle-hardened ISIS militants are held in Syrian prisons – posing a serious risk if released, especially through orchestrated prison breaks. Additionally, thousands of ISIS-affiliated individuals remain in detention camps, where they are vulnerable to radicalization and recruitment. Following the fall of the Bashar Al-Assad Ba’ath regime, the tenuous control of the new Syrian government, combined with ongoing violence, could further strengthen ISIS’s capabilities, allowing jihadists to regroup, sustain their presence, and potentially expand their influence once again.