Containerterminal Tollerort in the port of Hamburg
Economic ties with China are increasingly viewed as a political risk, as shown by the debate over a COSCO investment into Hamburg port. | Foto: Raimond Spekking via wikimedia commons | CC BY-SA 4.0

Germany’s New China Strategy: A Defensive Shift

After a lengthy process of internal deliberation, the German government released its China strategy on July 13. The document signals a policy shift away from the business-focused approach taken by previous governments, and towards a “de-risking” of ties with China. It also reframes the relationship by stressing elements of competition and even rivalry, based on the perception that Chinese authoritarianism is becoming a threat to Germany and its role in the world. Instead of seeking to transform autocracies through engagement, the new approach is much more about shoring up Germany’s own system.

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Benjamin Netanjahu and Olaf Scholz attend a memorial event commemorating deportation of Jews
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz attend a memorial event commemorating deportation of Jews during World War II at the Plattform 17 Memorial at Grunewald railway station in Berlin, Germany, 16 March 2023. | Photo: © picture alliance / EPA | Filip Singer.

Outlook on German-Israeli Relations: German Staatsraison and Netanyahu‘s Coalition Contentious ‚Judicial Reform‘

The current Spotlight explores different interpretations of Germany’s Staatsraison – or raison d’état – which emphasize Germany’s commitment to defending Israel’s national security. This component has played a crucial role in German-Israeli relations to date. The recent attempts (January–June 2023) by Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government to overhaul the Supreme Court have left Israeli society facing extreme tension and have shaken the country’s sense of national unity. Since 1965 and especially in the post Cold War period, German Staatsraison has meant defending Israel’s security – but with the assault on Israel’s democracy, can it continue with the same purpose in the future? This Spotlight discusses how this development might impact German-Israeli relations.

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Prigozhin's "mutiny" in Rostov on 24. June, 2023. A tank with flowers in its gun barrel.
Prigozhin's "mutiny". A tank with flowers in its gun barrel. | Foto: Fargoh via Wikimedia Commons | CC0 1.0

What’s the Long-Term Significance of Wagner’s March to Moscow?

On 23 and 24 June, armed columns of the Wagner Group made their way from occupied Ukrainian territory toward Moscow, passing through Rostov and Voronezh. The declared goal of these Russian mercenaries under the leadership of oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin was to depose Russian Minister of Defense Sergei K. Shoigu and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery V. Gerasimov. Prigozhin accused both of having betrayed Russia in its war against Ukraine.

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Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud after signing a joint statement on the restoration of diplomatic relations, with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang in the background.
China’s Saudi-Iran mediation represents a successful case of its forays into the Middle East. | Photo: Mehr News Agency via wikimedia commons | CC BY 4.0

The Power of Not Using Power: China and the Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement

The intensifying systemic rivalry between great powers also involves contesting the most effective approaches to conflict resolution and mediation. The most recent Beijing-mediated détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran has ignited heated debates regarding its longevity and China’s rising profile in the region. While the Middle East may still be a region largely inhospitable to outsider mediation, there are three good reasons why Beijing’s latest foray into Middle East peace diplomacy may be effective. The article argues that China’s hitherto successful mediation between Saudi and Iran lies in its power of not using power—the ability to leverage its growing geoeconomic influence while refraining from the use of coercive power in regional affairs. This approach aims at providing an alternative approach to external powers’ engagement in Middle East peace affairs.

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Embassy of the United Arab Emirates in Damascus
Steps towards normalization: In 2018, the UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus. | Photo: Fars Media Corporation via wikimedia commons | CC BY 4.0

Arab States’ Incentives Towards (not) Normalizing Relations with Syria – Islamists and Drug Trafficking?

Syria has returned to the stage of regional diplomacy with the readmission of Damascus to the Arab League after a 12-year suspension. The country’s comeback is the outcome of regional diplomatic efforts that started in 2018 but reached their climax after the devastating earthquake in Syria and Turkey in February. Normalization with Syria comes without any accountability for the crimes the Syrian regime has committed against its own people nor a change in behavior that would signal the end of the suffering of Syrians. We argue that despite international and regional factors setting the stage, domestic factors are Arab states’ main incentives for normalization.

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Two penguins at the shore with a ship in the background and a boat that has people with orange jackets on it.
Danco Island, Antarctica: The small island is a landing spot for tourists and home to a Gentoo penguin colony. | Photo: Derek Oyen via Unsplash

Is Antarctica Still Exceptional? The Case for “Co-opetition” at the South Pole

Antarctic diplomacy has famously shielded the continent of peace, science, and environmental protection from outside conflict and war. This “exceptionalism” is now being tested by Russia’s war against Ukraine and the belief that international strategic competition between great powers is spilling over into the Antarctic. In order to keep the Antarctic exceptional, however, it would be wise to refocus on what has made Antarctic diplomacy so successful in the first place: cooperation in order to compete, or “co-opetition.”

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White wall with crack
Decoupling is a process that is fraught with tensions. | Photo: AYOUB AALLAGUI, Unsplash

Decoupling and the “New Cold War”: Cautionary Lessons from the Past

An emerging “new Cold War” appears to pit democracies, led by the US, against autocracies, led by Russia and China. But the analogy between today’s regime competition and that of the “old” Cold War is deceptive. China and Russia today are much more closely intertwined with Western democracies than the Soviet Union ever was. These linkages will complicate the conflict considerably. There is already growing pressure to engage in “decoupling”, that is, to break these interdependencies. Research on past instances of decoupling shows that such processes often exacerbate conflict. This research offers four lessons about the general dynamics of decoupling – and little cause for optimism about today’s disengagement processes.

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Putin and Xi at their meeting in Moscow
The Sino-Russian partnership differs significantly from the Western community of nations. | Photo: kremlin.ru via wikimedia commons | CC BY 4.0

Xi and Putin’s Strategic Tango: Unpacking the Complexities of Russia-China Relations After the 2023 Moscow Summit

The March 2023 state visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping to Russia has attracted significant attention, and has been described as symbolic of growing cooperation between authoritarian states opposed to the current world order. However, as we argue in a recently-published article based on a review of Russian and Chinese expert statements, this partnership should best be understood as a limited, strategically motivated cooperation against shared threat perceptions. Meanwhile, there is much less agreement on normative questions, let alone a shared vision of an alternative world order.

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Wall with bricks, half is painted white, the other half is painted blue, but on both sides a few bricks have the opposite color.
States with different political regime types increasingly view each other as competitors. | Photo: Katerina Pavlyuchkova, Unsplash (edited)

Regime Competition in a Fragmented World: Consequences for Peace and Conflict

More than thirty years after the proclaimed “end of history” and the third wave of demo­cratization, the world is once again marked by increased diversity in political regimes. The (re-)emergence of powerful autho­ritarian states like China and Russia and the trend of back­sliding in seemingly consolidated demo­cracies have created a more pluralistic and multipolar world, in which states with different political regime types increasingly view each other as competitors, seeking to prove the superiority of their own political and economic systems and to win the alle­giance of third countries.

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Bombed homes in Borodyanka, Ukraine, and a damaged statue.
Russia exploited the “nuclear shadow” when it started its war against Ukraine. | Photo: Mikael Colville-Andersen via flickr | CC BY-NC 2.0

War against Ukraine: How to Make Deterrence and Arms Control Work

One year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, experts from the United States, Ukraine, Germany, Turkey, and France discussed the consequences of the war for the nuclear world order in a workshop organized by PRIF’s French partner organization “Fondation pour la recherche stratégique” (FRS) and the “Odesa Center for Nonproliferation” (OdCNP). The focus was on the importance and limits of nuclear deterrence policy and arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation.

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