Despite the deadlocked military situation for Ukraine and the policy shift in the US, Germany and Europe still lack a negotiating strategy for a diplomatic solution. But only military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are not going to end the war on the most favorable terms for Kyiv. As difficult as it may be, positive offers equally needed. Europe’s confrontation with President Trump’s diplomatic efforts will also not help to achieve more European sovereignty. Rather, we will have to negotiate with him and President Putin about the future of Ukraine and our own security architecture. Instead of panicking and investing solely in the military, European governments should therefore pull themselves together and, above all, seize the diplomatic opportunity to secure their fate.
Pragmatic Solutions to an Abstract Problem? How Cities are Addressing Climate Migration
It has been about three months since the catastrophic wildfires broke out on January 7, 2025, devastating the US city of Los Angeles. The fires destroyed thousands of homes and displaced their residents. These wildfires also highlighted the many facets of climate migration: the urgency of the climate crisis, manifold reasons why people move, and the crucial role of cities, not just as sites of climate impacts but also as actors in addressing climate migration. Amid a rather abstract discussion about climate migrants, cities offer the chance to address the needs of people on the move because of the climate crisis more substantially and practically.
Without a Caliphate, But Far from Defeated: Why Da’esh/ISIS Remains a Threat in Syria in 2025
Since the fall of its self-proclaimed caliphate in 2019, ISIS remains a persistent threat in Syria. As of 2025, according to US estimates, more than 2,500 active fighters continue to operate in Syria and Iraq, while thousands of battle-hardened ISIS militants are held in Syrian prisons – posing a serious risk if released, especially through orchestrated prison breaks. Additionally, thousands of ISIS-affiliated individuals remain in detention camps, where they are vulnerable to radicalization and recruitment. Following the fall of the Bashar Al-Assad Ba’ath regime, the tenuous control of the new Syrian government, combined with ongoing violence, could further strengthen ISIS’s capabilities, allowing jihadists to regroup, sustain their presence, and potentially expand their influence once again.
Mit nüchternem Blick zum Verhandlungstisch: Europa muss die Beendigung des Ukrainekrieges und den Rückzug der USA diplomatisch mitgestalten
Trotz der längst verfahrenen militärischen Lage für die Ukraine und bekannten Kurswechsels in den USA hielten Deutschland und Europa an der unrealistischen Strategie fest, nur mit militärischer Unterstützung und Sanktionen eine Verhaltensänderung Moskaus zu erreichen. Damit allein lässt sich der Krieg nicht zu möglichst günstigen Bedingungen für Kyjiw beenden. Die europäische Passivität gegenüber dem diplomatischen Ansatz von Präsident Trump wird auch nicht helfen, mehr europäische Souveränität zu erlangen. Vielmehr wird die Zukunft der Ukraine und unsere eigene Sicherheitsarchitektur mit ihm und auch mit Präsident Putin ausgehandelt werden müssen. Statt panisch nur ins Militär zu investieren, sollten sich die europäischen Regierungen ausnüchtern und diplomatisch rüsten, ihr Schicksal in die Hand zu nehmen.
Europe’s Defence Dilemma: Rising Militarization Amidst Industrial Fragmentation and Weak Export Controls
The issue of arming Germany and the EU countries is currently dominating the headlines. The threat posed by Putin’s Russia and the uncertainty as to whether the USA under Trump will still stand by its security policy commitments within NATO have prompted the EU states to embark on a massive rearmament program. However, the EU Commission is currently setting the pace with the publication of the new White Paper and a series of defence industry programs. The discussion about the considerable arms expenditure obscures the focus on the fragmentation and competition among the European arms industry, the differences in threat analysis between the EU nation states, and the possible risks and problems of lowering the standards of German and European arms export policy.
Maintaining the Rules-Based International Order: How Europe can Stand up to the Superpowers as an Alliance of Small States
When Western voices described the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as an attack on the “rules-based” or “liberal” international order, it was always implied that it was Western states, and the USA in particular, that safeguarded international law after the Second World War. However, it was primarily Afro-Asian states that defended the rules-based order during the Cold War when aggressions challenged the inviolability of international borders. A closer look at this history can help to develop concepts for the validity of international norms – especially for a Europe that is in danger of becoming an object of great power politics in the future.
PRIF talk #012 // Klima und Konflikt im Anthropozän
Eisschilde schmelzen, Plastik findet sich in den entlegensten Ecken der Erde und Arten sterben. Längst sind Klima- und Umweltkrisen nicht mehr nur Kulisse politischer Konflikte, sondern führen zu Unsicherheit und Konflikten und bedrohen Existenzen. Die neueste Folge des PRIF talk taucht ein in das Anthropozän – das Zeitalter, in dem der Mensch zum langfristig prägenden Faktor der Erde geworden ist. Patrick Flamm leitet eine neue Forschungsgruppe zu den Zusammenhängen zwischen Ökologie und Konflikt. Im Gespräch erklärt er, warum die Forschung zur Verbindung zwischen Umwelt und Sicherheit wichtig ist und wie eine nachhaltige Friedenspolitik im Zeitalter des Anthropozäns aussehen könnte.
Dealing with Germany’s First Genocide: Why Bilateral Negotiations with Namibia Failed and What the New Government Must Do
Since the end of the last Bundestag session it has become clear that although projected in the coalition agreement, the Scholz government has not taken significant steps towards dealing with Germany’s colonial past in Namibia. A Joint Declaration fell victim to the early elections in Germany. This spotlight presents data from a representative survey showing that dealing with the colonial past in Namibia has no priority for Germans, which might explain why the Scholz government shied away from making the case an election issue. The spotlight identifies key take-away points on what went wrong and what a new German government should do better.
Uprisings in Serbia. Struggle(s) against a resilient regime
Following the collapse of the recently renovated Novi Sad train station, which resulted in the death of 15 people, students across Serbia have been leading one of Europe’s largest protest movements. After months of anti-corruption demonstrations demanding justice and government accountability, hundreds of thousands gathered in Belgrade on March 15, 2025, in what some call […]
Festhalten an der regelbasierten internationalen Ordnung: Wie Europa als Allianz kleiner Staaten gegenüber den Supermächten bestehen kann
Wenn westliche Stimmen den russischen Überfall auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 als Angriff auf die „regelbasierte“ oder „liberale“ internationale Ordnung beschrieben haben, schwang dabei stets mit, dass es westliche Staaten und insbesondere die USA waren, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg das Völkerrecht sicherten. Es waren jedoch vor allem afro-asiatische Staaten, die während des Kalten Kriegs die regelbasierte Ordnung verteidigten, wenn Aggressionen die Unverletzlichkeit internationaler Grenzen infrage stellten. Eine nähere Betrachtung dieser Geschichte kann helfen, zukunftsfähige Konzepte für die Geltungskraft internationaler Normen zu entwickeln – gerade für ein Europa, das Gefahr läuft, zukünftig zur Verhandlungsmasse der Großmächte zu werden.
.jpg){kind=link}
_2025-03-02-15-13.jpg){kind=link}