In hindsight, the 2025 Munich Security Conference marked a pivotal moment. Once again the forum brought together decision-makers from around the world to discuss major global security issues, with widespread hope that it would set the stage for a sustainable peace process for Ukraine. Instead, the prospects for such a process have greatly declined, while the conference itself only further demonstrated the diminishing relevance of the ‘global West’. Originally established as a Military Security Conference (Internationale Wehrkunde-Begegnung) focused on European and transatlantic security, the MSC now stands at a crossroads: return to its European roots or expand politically and thematically? Both options come with a price tag.
Schlagwort: Europa
From Munich to Munich? Three Years of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Three years ago, in Ukraine, I was awoken at 4:45 am by a frightening noise unlike anything I had ever heard. I stared into the darkness behind the window and told myself: it’s not true, it’s not a war, it’s just military exercises. Yet the nightmare of Russia’s full-scale military invasion was real and continues to this day. Since then, Ukrainians have been standing, fighting, and defending themselves, resisting not only Russia but also prophesies of disaster and efforts to undermine support for Kyiv. Despite this, the Ukrainian army still stands and it holds the key to the future.
How a Sustainable Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine Could be Reached
The Trump administration’s recent actions have left many uncertain about the prospects and trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian war. False certainties and anxious interpretations abound. However, some clear tendencies have emerged from Trump’s first few months in office as well as from his last term. Europe’s leaders, while trapped between Trump’s geopolitical flailing, Putin’s ongoing war efforts, and a continent-wide surge in nationalist sentiments, have options at their disposal that could significantly shape upcoming decisions. A lot is at stake, and the time to act is now.
Was in der Zukunft der Ukraine liegt: Plädoyer für eine Verteidigungs- und Resilienzstrategie
Mit Beginn der russischen Vollinvasion der Ukraine vor zwei Jahren setzte auch bei uns am PRIF eine intensive Auseinandersetzung mit dem Konflikt ein. Nach nunmehr zwei Jahren Krieg, Hunderttausenden von Gefallenen und Verwundeten, Millionen Geflüchteten und wohl über einer Billion Euro in Wirtschaftsschäden stellt sich die Frage, wie es um die Zukunft der Ukraine bestellt ist.
Russia Cuts Off Nord Stream 1: How Will This Affect Germany’s Foreign Policy?
In early September, Russia announced an indefinite stoppage of gas deliveries to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline system, causing economic turmoil. Research findings on patterns in German and Russian policy and ongoing trends shed light on these events and their probable future impact. Despite denials from Moscow, this is a Russian attempt to influence German policy on sanctions and Ukraine. This attempt is unlikely to succeed for now. However, future developments – notably major shifts on the Ukrainian battlefield, changes in German public sentiments, and specific dynamics within the Kremlin – could cause German policy to become more susceptible to Russia’s demands.
France and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: an analysis of Macron’s diplomatic efforts
Since December 2021, French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have spoken fourteen times, including during the former’s visit to Moscow. Among western leaders, Macron has been one of the few to keep diplomatic channels open with Russia, even after the invasion of Ukraine. This not only shows France’s foreign policy activism but also hints at Paris’s pivotal role in finding a negotiated solution to the current war. Analyzing Macron’s discourse during his latest visit to Moscow can therefore yield some interesting insights on how he intends to deal with Europe’s most reckless neighbor, Russia.
The Russian Military Build-Up Near the Ukrainian Border: Offensive Intentions or Diplomatic Signaling?
The recent build-up of Russian troops on the border to Ukraine is making waves in the political debate. Predominant views in the West share the assumption that Russia has offensive intentions and aims at revising the established status quo. This blog post argues that Moscow’s motives are not as straightforward as usually assumed in the West. In fact, Russia’s military behavior and its crisis diplomacy suggests that Moscow is more interested in sending a signal than in preparing for war.
Breaking the vicious circle: Can the new Moldovan president Sandu succeed in balancing relations with the EU and Russia?
For the first time in its history, the Republic of Moldova has voted for an openly pro-Western president. Despite facing domestic and international difficulties, the newly elected Moldovan head of state Maia Sandu could manage to solve dire economic problems at home, while securing the support of both Russia and the European Union. This could have longstanding consequences for both the country itself and for all the other states of the common EU-Russian neighborhood.
Der Fall Nawalny und die westliche Reaktion – keine Auswege aus der Destruktionsspirale?
Obwohl noch immer viele Fragen offen bleiben, wer genau und aus welchem Grund Alexey Nawalny vergiftet hat, wird bereits deutlich, dass der Fall Nawalny gravierende Folgen für die russisch-westlichen Beziehungen haben wird. Neue Sanktionen oder der Baustopp der Nordstream-II Pipeline – der Westen verfügt in seiner möglichen Gegenreaktion über eine Vielzahl von Optionen. Doch stellt sich durchaus die Frage, ob das System Putins sich überhaupt durch Druck vom Außen noch beeinflussen lässt oder dadurch nur noch verhärtet wird. Diese neue Eskalationsstufe im Konflikt mit Russland kann unbeabsichtigte Konsequenzen nach sich ziehen, was den Westen jedoch nicht davon abhalten sollte, klar und entschieden zu reagieren.
75 Jahre nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg: Wie Russland und die EU um Deutungshoheit kämpfen
Die Beziehungen zwischen der Europäischen Union (EU) und Russland sind spätestens seit der Ukraine-Krise 2014 von Konfrontation geprägt. Nun eskalieren beide Seiten die Auseinandersetzung auf einem weiteren Feld: dem der Erinnerung. Dabei geht es nicht nur um die Interpretation der Vorgeschichte des Zweiten Weltkrieges, sondern auch um die Konstruktion von Identität und die Legitimation politischer Ziele. Auf russischer Seite beteiligt sich Präsident Putin persönlich am Streit, während auf europäischer Seite das Europäische Parlament durch die Interpretation einer gemeinsamen europäischen Geschichte auch die Zukunft der EU im Blick hat. Beide Seiten liefern ein prägnantes Beispiel für Geschichtspolitik und ihre politischen und instrumentellen Konsequenzen ab und führen die EU-Russland-Beziehungen damit in eine weitere Sackgasse.
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