Soldiers at the Korean Demilitarized Zone
Tensions in the Korean Demilitarized Zone and the whole Peninsula could flare up under a Trump presidency. | Photo: Roamme via flickr | CC BY-SA 2.0

U.S. Elections and Their Potential Impact on U.S.-Korean Relations

The upcoming U.S. elections signal a potential shift in U.S.-Korean relations. While Kamala Harris would likely continue President Biden’s focus on sanctions and deterrence, Donald Trump might just as easily revive diplomatic talks as cause another flare-up of tensions on the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, South Korea is concerned about U.S. security commitments and currently debating whether to pursue its own nuclear deterrent. The Washington Declaration reaffirms U.S.-South Korean cooperation, but the conservative security proposal, Project 2025, hints at potential reductions in U.S. military presence. These developments raise questions about South Korea’s security and the broader stability of East Asia.

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Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the 2018 G20 in Buenos Aires
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the 2018 G20 in Buenos Aires | Photo: Dan Scavino | (Wikimedia Commons)

Fraying Ties: The Securitization of the US-China Relationship

The security dimension has long been the most contentious aspect of US-China relations, marked by strategic mistrust, great-power competition and several flashpoints in East Asia. Until recently, these tensions were moderated by much warmer and closer economic ties, civil society exchanges in business, education, academia, culture and tourism, as well as shared interests in globalization and trade. However, recent moves by the US and Chinese governments to “securitize” the previously cooperative aspects of their relationship have fundamentally altered this dynamic and greatly increased the likelihood of a permanent confrontation between the two great powers.

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