With US-China relations caught in a seemingly inescapable downward spiral and mounting speculation about a new „Cold War“, could a Biden victory in the upcoming US election lead to a reduction in tensions? Based on what is known about Biden’s approach to China, we should not expect a fundamental shift, and the US-China confrontation is likely to shape the international system for years to come. However, a Biden strategy would seek to re-engage allies in Europe, and may offer them a bigger chance to influence this process.
“Russian interference” became a buzzword in the 2016 US presidential election and throughout the four years of Trump’s presidency. In the run up to the 2020 election, purported or real threats from Moscow have been called out again, both by serious reports and rather questionable campaigns like a (privately funded) billboard in New York that – in reference to Trump’s alleged collusion with the Kremlin – warned that “Russian lessons are expensive”. In contrast to this preoccupation with Russia, the debate or rather the absence of debate in Moscow indicates a lack of interest in the US elections and points to the fact that Russian expectations are low.
Vom Abstieg der USA wird seit langem gesprochen. Aber dass er diese Form annehmen würde, hätte wohl kaum jemand gedacht. Wie kein anderes Ereignis macht die anstehende Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich, dass die Vereinigten Staaten längst den moral high ground, die moralische Überlegenheit, verloren haben, den sie als Führungsmacht des Westens lange beanspruchten.