Trotz der längst verfahrenen militärischen Lage für die Ukraine und bekannten Kurswechsels in den USA hielten Deutschland und Europa an der unrealistischen Strategie fest, nur mit militärischer Unterstützung und Sanktionen eine Verhaltensänderung Moskaus zu erreichen. Damit allein lässt sich der Krieg nicht zu möglichst günstigen Bedingungen für Kyjiw beenden. Die europäische Passivität gegenüber dem diplomatischen Ansatz von Präsident Trump wird auch nicht helfen, mehr europäische Souveränität zu erlangen. Vielmehr wird die Zukunft der Ukraine und unsere eigene Sicherheitsarchitektur mit ihm und auch mit Präsident Putin ausgehandelt werden müssen. Statt panisch nur ins Militär zu investieren, sollten sich die europäischen Regierungen ausnüchtern und diplomatisch rüsten, ihr Schicksal in die Hand zu nehmen.
Schlagwort: USA
Maintaining the Rules-Based International Order: How Europe can Stand up to the Superpowers as an Alliance of Small States
When Western voices described the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as an attack on the “rules-based” or “liberal” international order, it was always implied that it was Western states, and the USA in particular, that safeguarded international law after the Second World War. However, it was primarily Afro-Asian states that defended the rules-based order during the Cold War when aggressions challenged the inviolability of international borders. A closer look at this history can help to develop concepts for the validity of international norms – especially for a Europe that is in danger of becoming an object of great power politics in the future.
Festhalten an der regelbasierten internationalen Ordnung: Wie Europa als Allianz kleiner Staaten gegenüber den Supermächten bestehen kann
Wenn westliche Stimmen den russischen Überfall auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 als Angriff auf die „regelbasierte“ oder „liberale“ internationale Ordnung beschrieben haben, schwang dabei stets mit, dass es westliche Staaten und insbesondere die USA waren, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg das Völkerrecht sicherten. Es waren jedoch vor allem afro-asiatische Staaten, die während des Kalten Kriegs die regelbasierte Ordnung verteidigten, wenn Aggressionen die Unverletzlichkeit internationaler Grenzen infrage stellten. Eine nähere Betrachtung dieser Geschichte kann helfen, zukunftsfähige Konzepte für die Geltungskraft internationaler Normen zu entwickeln – gerade für ein Europa, das Gefahr läuft, zukünftig zur Verhandlungsmasse der Großmächte zu werden.
US Halts Defensive Cyber Activities Against Russia: A Digital ‘Withdrawal’ from Europe
In a major shift in U.S. cybersecurity policy, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to halt all planning against Russia, including offensive cyber operations. This policy change, made behind closed doors, represents a significant reversal of the approach taken under the Biden administration, which had identified Russia and China as the most significant intelligence threats to the United States. The decision aligns with the broader foreign policy direction of the Trump administration, which aims to “de-escalate” tensions with Russia, though it seems to be more of an appeasement. And this policy shift obviously comes at the expense of national and allied security, as has become frighteningly clear in recent days with the example of the – one can hardly call it anything else – ‘blackmail’ of Ukraine, which was temporarily denied military and intelligence support by the US.
Going Back or Going Global: The End of the West and the Future Role of the MSC
In hindsight, the 2025 Munich Security Conference marked a pivotal moment. Once again the forum brought together decision-makers from around the world to discuss major global security issues, with widespread hope that it would set the stage for a sustainable peace process for Ukraine. Instead, the prospects for such a process have greatly declined, while the conference itself only further demonstrated the diminishing relevance of the ‘global West’. Originally established as a Military Security Conference (Internationale Wehrkunde-Begegnung) focused on European and transatlantic security, the MSC now stands at a crossroads: return to its European roots or expand politically and thematically? Both options come with a price tag.
From Munich to Munich? Three Years of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Three years ago, in Ukraine, I was awoken at 4:45 am by a frightening noise unlike anything I had ever heard. I stared into the darkness behind the window and told myself: it’s not true, it’s not a war, it’s just military exercises. Yet the nightmare of Russia’s full-scale military invasion was real and continues to this day. Since then, Ukrainians have been standing, fighting, and defending themselves, resisting not only Russia but also prophesies of disaster and efforts to undermine support for Kyiv. Despite this, the Ukrainian army still stands and it holds the key to the future.
How a Sustainable Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine Could be Reached
The Trump administration’s recent actions have left many uncertain about the prospects and trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian war. False certainties and anxious interpretations abound. However, some clear tendencies have emerged from Trump’s first few months in office as well as from his last term. Europe’s leaders, while trapped between Trump’s geopolitical flailing, Putin’s ongoing war efforts, and a continent-wide surge in nationalist sentiments, have options at their disposal that could significantly shape upcoming decisions. A lot is at stake, and the time to act is now.
USAID Facing its End? Likely Consequences for International Democracy Promotion
The US government under President Donald Trump has announced a comprehensive shakeup of the US development aid agency USAID. The talk ranges from restructuring or integration into the State Department to complete closure of the organization. Immediately after the announcement, USAID funding was frozen for an initial 90 days and thousands of employees and contractors worldwide are laid off. With the end of USAID as we know it, a fundamental upheaval in international development cooperation and democracy promotion is imminent.
The Resurgence of the Pakistani Taliban – Implications for Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations
In December 2024, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistani Taliban, attacked Pakistani security forces. The Taliban, who have taken refuge in Afghanistan, have been targeting Pakistan from their base in Afghanistan. This incident is part of a series of attacks that have been taking place since 2021, in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Initially, it was expected that the return of the Afghan Taliban would benefit Pakistan’s strategic interests. However, the opposite has happened. This article examines why and how the TTP is catalysing a gradual deterioration of the relationship between the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan (Af-Pak).
Reducing Nuclear Threats: Why Talks on Ending the War in Ukraine Should Include Agreements on Nuclear Risk Reduction
As the new U.S. administration pivots toward negotiating a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, the growing nuclear threat from Russia demands urgent attention. Drawing on Cold War history and negotiation research, this analysis highlights how arms control – formal or informal – can help curb nuclear risks even in the most volatile crises. German and transatlantic policy makers should therefore integrate practical arms control and risk reduction measures into ceasefire discussions to safeguard European security and prevent nuclear escalation.
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