Russia’s interest in this year’s US presidential elections seems to be low. | Photo: Unsplash/rob walsh | Free use

This time, Russia сould not care less

“Russian interference” became a buzzword in the 2016 US presidential election and throughout the four years of Trump’s presidency. In the run up to the 2020 election, purported or real threats from Moscow have been called out again, both by serious reports and rather questionable campaigns like a (privately funded) billboard in New York that – in reference to Trump’s alleged collusion with the Kremlin – warned that “Russian lessons are expensive”. In contrast to this preoccupation with Russia, the debate or rather the absence of debate in Moscow indicates a lack of interest in the US elections and points to the fact that Russian expectations are low.

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Der russische Oppositionspolitiker Alexey Nawalny hatte in der Vergangenheit häufig mit Repressionen und Angriffen zu kämpfen. Mit deutlich weniger gravierenden Folgen als jetzt etwa im März 2017, als ihn Unbekannte mit grüner Farbe attackierten.
Alexey Nawalny nach einem Farbanschlag im März 2017 | Photo: © Evgeny Feldman via Wikimedia Commons | CC BY-SA 4.0

Der Fall Nawalny und die westliche Reaktion – keine Auswege aus der Destruktionsspirale?

Obwohl noch immer viele Fragen offen bleiben, wer genau und aus welchem Grund Alexey Nawalny vergiftet hat, wird bereits deutlich, dass der Fall Nawalny gravierende Folgen für die russisch-westlichen Beziehungen haben wird. Neue Sanktionen oder der Baustopp der Nordstream-II Pipeline – der Westen verfügt in seiner möglichen Gegenreaktion über eine Vielzahl von Optionen. Doch stellt sich durchaus die Frage, ob das System Putins sich überhaupt durch Druck vom Außen noch beeinflussen lässt oder dadurch nur noch verhärtet wird. Diese neue Eskalationsstufe im Konflikt mit Russland kann unbeabsichtigte Konsequenzen nach sich ziehen, was den Westen jedoch nicht davon abhalten sollte, klar und entschieden zu reagieren.

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Belarus' long-time president Alyaksandr Lukashenka in a meeting with US foreign minister Mike Pompeo in Februar 2020 in Minsk. | Photo: Wikimedia Commons/US State Department, Photo by Ron Przysucha | Public Domain

Winning Elections but Losing the Country. What does a Weakened Lukashenka Regime Mean for European Security?

No international election observers, no real opposition candidates, internet shutdown and the most brutal crackdown on peaceful street demonstrations the country ever witnessed – these are the initial results of the recent presidential elections in Belarus. Despite the aforementioned violations of democratic procedure, this comes as no surprise for all those familiar with the realities in this East European country which has been ruled for 26 long years by the former collective farm manager Alyaksandr Lukashenka. And yet August 9 2020 is likely to go down Belarus’ history books marking a turning point both for the country and for European security as it opens a new chapter of competition between Russia and the West for Eastern Europe.

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President Putin also took part in the vote for the approval of amendments to the Constitution, here on July 1 2020 at a polling station in the building of the Russian Academy of Sciences. | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

What Does the New Russian Constitution Mean for European Security?

In 1993, Russia literally had to fight to adopt its new constitution. In October that year, the then president Boris Yeltsin ordered tanks to shell the White House in Moscow (seat of then Supreme Soviet, now of the Russian government), where plotters were hoping to restore the Soviet Union and roll back democratic reforms. In 2020, no show of force was required to amend the constitution (if we are to ignore the military parade on the Red Square on the eve of the seven-day-long referendum), and yet the consequences of this move for both Russia and its neighbours might be even more drastic than those 30 years ago.

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In this Sunday, March 22, 2020, photo supplied by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, military trucks load onto an Il-76 cargo plane in Chkalovsky military airport outside Moscow, Russia. Nine hulking Il-76 cargo planes are being loaded at the Chkalovsky military airport in Moscow as Russia prepares to send medical personnel and supplies to Italy to help the country's efforts against the coronavirus. The mission include eight mobile medical teams along with medical equipment and aerosol disinfection trucks is to begin Sunday, one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin offered the aid in a telephone conversation with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, whose country has confirmed more than 53,000 coronavirus cases and over 4,800 deaths. (Alexei Yereshko, Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP) |
Military trucks load medical supplies onto an Il-76 cargo plane in Chkalovsky military airport outside Moscow, Russia. (Alexei Yereshko, Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

From Russia with Love?! Putin and the Pandemic

For Russia the novel SARS-CoV-2 still seems to be the best of a bad lot, as the country still reports relatively low numbers of infected people. But, if coupled with other pre-existing problems (power transfer and economic hardships), the pandemic could exacerbate an already unstable situation and lead to new unpredictable foreign policy moves. Russia’s strategy in times of SARS-CoV-2 is most likely going to be threefold: further working on its global image by sending aid and offering assistance; shifting its focus from the near abroad to great power politics; and doubling up the ongoing information warfare if the first two do not bring immediate results.

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Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev prior to the cabinet meeting in Moscow on 15 January 2020 (Photo: picture alliance/AP Photo).

Lost in Transition? Putin’s Strategy for 2024

Speculations about “Транзит“ or transfer of power have circulated in the Russian mass media since Vladimir Putin got elected as the President of the Russian Federation for the fourth time in March 2018. The turbulent political events of the first weeks of 2020 shed some light on Putin’s strategy for his future. In case he chooses to leave the president’s chair, he will hardly be able to fully control the handover of power and will likely face some unintended consequences.

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Normandy Format Summit Held in Paris | Photo: picture alliance/ZUMA Press
Normandy Format Summit Held in Paris | Photo: picture alliance/ZUMA Press

What Does the Normandy Summit Mean for the Peace Process in Ukraine?

The beginning of conflict in Eastern Ukraine is nearing its sixth anniversary. The concerted effort of Russian, French, German and Ukrainian leaders to settle this issue diplomatically has yielded few tangible results so far. The recent meeting in Paris of four leaders gives ground for cautious optimism. What have the parties agreed upon? What problems remain and what has changed since the last round of Normandy negotiations?

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