This Spotlight discusses the resurgence of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that an analytical and political focus on coup events misses out on the bigger picture of military influence in politics. Introducing the new Multidimensional Measures of Militarization (M3) dataset, we demonstrate that African countries that were part of the recent wave of coups, previously showed signs of political militarization such as military veto powers and impunity. We conclude that these subtle forms of military influence can serve as early warning indicators for military coups.
Author: Felix Bethke
Dr. Felix S. Bethke ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter im Programmbereich „Innerstaatliche Konflikte“ am PRIF. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind Bürgerkriege, Demokratisierung und politischer Protest. Sein regionaler Fokus liegt auf Afrika, insbesondere Äthiopien. // Dr Felix S. Bethke is a Senior Researcher in PRIF‘s research department “Intrastate Conflict”. His research focuses on civil wars, democratization, and political protest. His regional focus is Africa, Ethiopia in particular. | Twitter: @f_bethke
Prospects for Peace in Tigray. An assessment of the peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF
On November 2, 2022, the Ethiopian federal government and representatives of the Tigrayan rebels concluded an agreement intended to end the devastating civil war in the region. What some consider to be the world’s deadliest active conflict has caused tens of thousands battle-related fatalities and even more civilian victims due to famine and lack of medical service during the last two years. This Spotlight discusses the prospects of the current peace agreement and potential pitfalls that may undermine its stability.
Civil War in Ethiopia. The Instrumentalization and Politicization of Identity
For more than a year, the civil war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been causing severe human suffering and fatalities in the thousands. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, both conflict parties have committed serious human rights violations. This Spotlight shows how the shifting dynamics of ethnic power relations and the strategy of elite management pursued by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed contributed to the escalation of violence.
Wie friedliche Revolutionen nachhaltig demokratische Entwicklung stärken
Friedliche Revolutionen, welche beispielsweise in Polen, der DDR, oder jüngst im Sudan zum Ende von Diktaturen geführt haben, sind historische Wegscheiden, die nachhaltig die politische Entwicklung eines Landes prägen. Neue Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass friedliche Revolutionen langfristig die Stabilität und Qualität von Demokratien befördern. Demokratieförderung und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit können an diese Erkenntnisse anknüpfen.
COVID-19 as a Threat to Civic Spaces Around the World
As countries across the globe are desperately trying to control the COVID-19 pandemic, a rapidly increasing number of governments have started to impose severe restrictions on core civic freedoms. Although restrictions are currently necessary to save lives and protect health care from overburdening, these emergency measures must be proportional and strictly limited in time. It is crucial to monitor how restrictions are implemented to prevent governments from using the current crisis to justify new constraints on civic spaces, which have already have been shrinking in many places during the last 15 years.
