a large crowd holding up two posters showing the head of two men.
The celebrations of independence fighter Amilcar Cabral in September will be a critical moment. | Image: UN Photo via flickr | CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Early Warning for New Trouble? Increasing Social Polarization in Guinea-Bissau

Gen Z protests have kept governments in, among others, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda, in suspense for weeks. Off the international radar, Guinea-Bissau has witnessed cross-generational protests lately, following an alleged coup attempt in late 2023. Protestors accuse the President of orchestrating the coup to dissolve parliament by decree. Many in Guinea-Bissau now challenge the presidency and demand adherence to the election schedule, with elections set for November 2024. This blog post takes the protests as a moment to widen the view, offering both narrative and counter-narrative readings of the coup attempt to contextualize the current political situation.

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Five people and a dog are seen outlined in orange, against an orange background. Two of the people talk to each other, one stands along with a stick, one walks a dog, and the other is in a wheelchair. All of them look at their mobile phones intently, and all cast shadows on the ground. The shadows are made up of network diagrams, being representative, rather than literal shadows.
Jamillah Knowles & Reset.Tech Australia / Better Images of AI / People on phones (portrait) / Licenced by CC-BY 4.0

Going to the Polls (Dis)Informed? The Role of Disinformation in the Upcoming US Elections

On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced that he would be dropping out of the race, only a week after the assassination attempt on now official Republican candidate, Donald Trump. The electoral campaign which has so far been characterized by immense uncertainty, provides a perfect breeding ground for the spread of disinformation about the candidates and election process itself. As the stakes of the upcoming US elections remain incredibly high for both domestic and international politics, disinformation is becoming one of the most pressing challenges of our time.

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Big red brick building and pedestrian paths with groups of young people walking
Dhaka University: What began as a peaceful protest turned violent on 15 July. | Photo: Mohammad Tauheed, flickr | CC BY-NC 2.0

Bangladesh Quota Protest – Tip of the Iceberg?

Violent clashes between students and police in Bangladesh have officially claimed more than 300 lives (unofficial figures are much higher). The students are protesting against a controversial quota system that reserves 56% of governmental jobs, leaving only 44% for general merit-based selection. Although the initial mobilisation of the students was about quota reform, the continuation of the protests indicates deep-rooted anger against the Sheikh Hasina government. Even if the protests are called off, which is not the case at the moment, justice for those who lost their lives in the protests will remain elusive.

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Eine Frankreichfahne mit Aufschrift „Ensemble pour la République“ der vereinigten Linken
Die vereinigte Linke verhinderte den Sieg der Rechtsextremisten. | Foto: Jeanne Menjoulet XY via flickr | CC BY 2.0 Attribution 2.0 Generic Deed

Von Frankreich lernen und mehr Demokratie wagen

Frankreich steckt in einer beispiellosen Regierungskrise, aus der wir lernen können. Die Abstrafung der Regierungsführung Macrons bei der Parlamentswahl zeigt: Wer den Anliegen der eigenen Wählerschaft zu wenig Respekt zollt und sich bei seiner Wiederwahl zu sehr auf die Dämonisierung des Gegners stützt, kann nicht damit rechnen, als Sieger hervorzugehen. Eine lebendige demokratische Kultur fürchtet die Wähler nicht, sondern nimmt ihr Votum als Ausgangspunkt für politisches Handeln und Verhandeln.

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Capitol Dome Peeking Out From Behind the Washington Monument
Dark times ahead? The stakes are particularly high in the next presidential election. | Photo: John Brighenti | CC BY 2.0

Preparing for the Worst: A PRIF Blog Series on the US Elections in November

The presidential elections in the United States this November come with incredibly high stakes – both for US democracy and for US allies across the world. A new PRIF blog series on the consequences of the elections will address the possible fallout of a second Trump term for PRIF’s research areas and examine ways that German and European policymakers could prepare for and respond to the elections.

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Menschenmenge auf Platz vor Fachwerkhäusern und Wolkenkratzern
Massenproteste gegen Rechts auf dem Frankfurter Römer und umliegenden Plätzen, 20. Januar 2024 | Foto: KoalaKollektiv via flickr | CC BY-ND 2.0

Aufstehen gegen Rechts – ein langer Weg zu gehen

Die Massenproteste gegen Rechts haben deutlich gemacht: Viele Menschen wollen dem Erstarken der extremen Rechten nicht länger zuschauen. Sie wollen eine demokratische Gesellschaft ohne Wenn und Aber. Dabei dürften die Proteste eher einen lautstarken Anfang als das Ende der Auseinandersetzungen markieren. Denn die Entwicklungen und Krisen, die der extremen Rechten den Nährboden bereiten, bestehen weiterhin. Der zivilgesellschaftliche Aufbruch ist dabei zugleich Angebot und Aufforderung an die Politik, eine andere Mitte zu finden, die sich von den nach Rechts schielenden Narrativen der „Besorgten Bürger“ löst.

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Mark Rutte, Ursula von der Leyen, Kaïs Saïed , and Giorgia Meloni shaking hands
Mark Rutte, Ursula von der Leyen, Kais Saied, and Giorgia Meloni. | Photo: Dati Bendo, © European Union, 2023

EU Democracy Support in the Southern Neighborhood: How the EU Contradicts its own Practices

For decades, the EU has declared that it aims to support democratization in its southern neighborhood. Yet, the EU’s cooperation with repressive rulers in other policy fields, such as energy, migration, security, and trade, contradicts the EU’s own democracy support objectives. European policymakers have apparently not learnt from the pre-2011 period. As we argue in our project SHAPEDEM-EU, the EU must embark on a journey of un-, de- and re-learning, and it must avoid contradicting practices in different policy fields. This can be done by introducing a democracy learning loop.

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People standing in a large room with the Philippine flag hanging on the wall
Members of the Philippine Congress sing the Philippine national anthem during the opening of the Second Regular Session of 17th Congress at the House of Representatives in Quezon City, Philippines, 24 July 2017. Photo: © picture alliance/EPA | ROLEX DELA PENA.

Failing in Control. Legislative weakness in the face of a strongman president in the Philippines

When Rodrigo Duterte assumed the presidency of the Philippines in 2016, he pushed a campaign against illegal drugs that resulted in thousands of suspects being killed by law enforcers. Parliament appeared entirely ineffective in opposing the extensive human rights abuses during the Presidents anti-drug campaign. This Spotlight examines the wider working logic of Philippine democracy that makes Philippine parliament into a subservient accomplice of any determined administration of the day, even if this means going along with severe human rights violations.

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Debate in the EU parliament
The EU is currently discussing foreign interference as a serious challenge. | Photo: © European Union 2021 – Source: EP | CC-BY-4.0

Debating Foreign Interference in a Multipolar World: Is the EU Becoming Illiberal?

The ways in which foreign interference by China, Russia and others are currently discussed in Brussels indicate that the EU is considering moving away from liberal principles in the area of international civil society support and the foreign funding of NGOs in particular. Based on a co-authored comment in the Heidelberg Journal of International Law, this blog post argues that it is helpful to read the current EU debate on foreign interference in the light of the ongoing, conflict-ridden transformation of the global order.

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Ein Foto des Deutschen Bundestages bei Nacht
Welche Rolle kommt politischen Regimetypen in der Nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie zu? | Foto: j0nqh via Pixabay

Nicht darüber reden ist auch keine Lösung: Die Rolle von Autokratie und Demokratie in der Nationalen Sicherheitsstrategie

Mit dem Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine wurde das Narrativ eines globalen Wettstreits zwischen Demokratien und Autokratien wiederbelebt, das bereits im Zuge des Aufstiegs Chinas an Bedeutung gewonnen hatte. Im März 2022 hatte auch Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock noch von einem „Bündnis von liberalen Demokratien weltweit“ gesprochen, das es gegen die Diktaturen dieser Welt zu schließen gelte. Etwas mehr als ein Jahr später hat die Bundesregierung nun ihre Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie veröffentlicht, in der vom Zwei-Lager-Denken nichts mehr zu finden ist. Diese positive Entwicklung wird jedoch konterkariert von einem weitgehenden Schweigen zu Fragen von Stabilität und Sicherheit, die sich im Umgang mit unterschiedlichen Regimetypen  stellen – was auch keine Lösung ist, wie wir im Folgenden argumentieren.

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