Why Germany Should Recognize Palestine

Germany has long withheld diplomatic recognition of Palestinian statehood, waiting for a formal peace process to create a sovereign Palestinian state. However, with the ongoing Gaza war, hostage crisis, and increasing West Bank annexation risk, peace prospects are dimmer than ever. By joining the majority of world nations in recognizing Palestinian statehood, Germany could take a small step toward affirming Palestinian self-determination rights and preserving the possibility of a future Palestinian state. Acting alongside France, Canada, Malta, Portugal, and the U.K., who are preparing similar moves, would minimize U.S. diplomatic risks while maximizing impact on Gaza’s humanitarian situation.

While the overwhelming majority of Latin American, Caribbean, African, Asian, and Eastern European countries already recognize Palestine as a state, there is increasing momentum among ‘Western’ countries to do so as well. Sweden and Iceland recognized Palestine before the 2023 outbreak of the current war between Israel and Hamas. In an attempt to push towards a two-state solution amidst the ongoing destruction of Gaza, Norway, Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia announced their recognition in 2024. Last week, French president Emmanuel Macron announced that France will join the 147 U.N member states that already recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. Several days later, Prime Minister Kier Starmer announced that the U.K. will also recognize Palestine unless Israel meets certain conditions on aid to Gaza and demonstrates commitment to a peace process. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney also committed his country to recognizing Palestine on the condition that the Palestinian Authority agree to reforms and to elections without Hamas, although he acknowledged this would be extremely difficult given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Similarly, Portugal and Malta have announced that they will recognize Palestine. However, Germany has announced that it will not recognize a Palestinian state in the ‘short term.’

This represents a missed opportunity for Germany to keep alive the prospects of a future peace settlement, address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and join a growing global movement affirming the Palestinians’ right to self-determination. Germany took part in the July 28-30 U.N. conference in New York, led by France and Saudi Arabia, which aimed to preserve the possibility of a future two-state solution. At the conference, representatives from across the world (including members of the Arab league) condemned the 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, pushed for Hamas to disarm, called for the release of hostages, advocated a permanent cease fire, and continuously raised the recognition of Palestine as an important and necessary step towards peace. By recognizing Palestine now, Germany could take a concrete step in contributing to this process.

Crucially, both the German government and parliament support a two-state solution and a future Palestinian state, in principle. Furthermore, Germany has long condemned the illegal expansion of settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories. Even Angela Merkel – famous for declaring that Israel’s security was part of Germany’s Staatsräson (‘reason of state’) – believed that a two-state solution, and thus a Palestinian state, was ‘without alternative’, and that the settlements were a barrier to peace. Indeed, the current government position, that statehood should only come as one of the ‘last steps’ in a future peace process, implies that the German government does believe Palestinians should have a state. However, it also suggests that Germany is delaying diplomatic recognition until some future peace agreement brings an end to the war and allows for the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Delaying Recognition is Not Working

Waiting for a final peace agreement to recognize Palestine has several major disadvantages. It creates a dynamic in which German recognition of Palestinian statehood is conditional upon Israeli policy. In practice, the creation of a viable Palestinian state would require an end to the war in Gaza and to the occupation of the West Bank, both of which would require Israeli agreement. Nevertheless, German recognition should not be something that Palestinians have to bargain with Israel for, but rather something they can use to push for a peace settlement that includes Palestinian statehood.

Maintaining the current position also ties Germany’s policy towards Palestinians to the policies of the current American and Israeli governments, neither of whom consider Palestinian statehood as even a long-term goal. Until recently, the United States maintained a nominal commitment to the creation of a future Palestinian state. However, with the Trump administration’s promotion of Gaza as a lucrative real estate development project and statements by the U.S. ambassador to Israel that the U.S. no longer fully backs a two-state solution, even the pretense of U.S. commitment to Palestinian statehood is waning. Tellingly, the White House chose not to participate in the recent U.N. conference on peace in Gaza and a two-state solution; instead, the U.S. State Department issued a statement calling the conference a ‘reward for terror.’

At the same time, the Israeli government continues to move towards eliminating the possibility of a future Palestinian state. Settlement expansion and settler violence in the West Bank have seen a major expansion under the current government. In late July the Knesset overwhelmingly approved a symbolic motion supporting the annexation of the West Bank. Meanwhile, Gaza has been almost entirely destroyed and the Israeli government openly plans to depopulate the strip.

Germany’s current policy involves waiting for a major agreement that allows for the creation of a Palestinian state with a government that fully controls its own territory. Such a policy may have made sense in the past when there seemed to be progress towards a ‘two-state’ solution. However, the current Israel-Hamas war only worsens the already dwindling prospects of a two-state solution. With the destruction of Gaza and its population and the increasing risk of Israel annexing the West Bank, the comprehensive peace deal that German leaders are waiting for may never come about. However, joining the majority of the world’s nations in extending diplomatic recognition of Palestinian statehood now is an opportunity for Germany to help keep the prospects of a sovereign Palestinian state alive.

Pressure Israel Towards Allowing Food and Supplies to Gaza

Waiting in perpetuity to recognize Palestinian statehood misses the impact that recognition could have right now. Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been stalling over the issue of whether to have a permanent cease fire. Hamas officials say they want a long-term cease fire in exchange for releasing the remaining hostages, while the current Israeli government wants to continue the war, with the aim of completely destroying Hamas or until Hamas agrees to completely disarm. Amidst the ongoing delay of negotiations, the Israeli government has triggered a famine by refusing to allow sufficient food into Gaza. To address the situation, Germany has begun an airlift to drop supplies into Gaza, a move that NGO’s and aid groups criticize as ineffective and dangerous, advocating instead for diplomatic pressure and sanctions against Israel.

Now, a week after France’s recognition of Palestinian statehood and amid growing public outcry over mass starvation in Gaza, the Israeli government has announced it will allow more food into Gaza. In the same way, German recognition of Palestinian statehood might serve as diplomatic leverage to help address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Furthermore, it could pressure the Israeli government to accept a deal to release the hostages and end the war, something organizations representing hostages and their families say the government has refused to do because it would collapse the current Israeli cabinet.

German-Israeli Relations Will Not Be Permanently Affected

Recognizing Palestinian statehood will very likely be met with sharp condemnation from Israel. However, the reality is that Israel is not in a strong position to retaliate against Germany. Israel relies on German diplomatic support at the United Nations and other international organizations, where its diplomatic standing has been weakened by the war in Gaza. However, Germany does not rely strongly on Israeli diplomatic support. On one of Germany’s leading diplomatic goals, pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine, Israel’s position has been mixed, recently joining the United States in voting against a UN motion to condemn Russia’s invasion.

Security ties with Israel, while important to Germany, are also unlikely to be seriously affected. Germany is building Israeli nuclear submarines and is among Israel’s most important trading partners. Germany does rely on Israel for some key military technologies, intelligence sharing, and for cybersecurity, but given that the German government has backed other Israeli policies and remains committed to Israeli security, it seems unlikely that the Israeli government would risk alienating Germany over recognition. France, which is less important to Israel strategically, recognized Palestinian statehood with no real consequences from Israel. Thus, while it is possible that Israel would retaliate by reducing security cooperation, such a move is unlikely because Germany has more leverage than Israel.

A more important risk is that Germany’s relationship with the United States could be affected. For example, Trump hinted that Canadian recognition of Palestine could affect a future trade deal. However, Trump regularly uses trade negotiations and tariffs to pressure countries to change policies he dislikes, so this should not be taken as an indication that recognition of Palestine is a ‘red line’ for the Trump administration. Furthermore, given that the United States refused to participate in the recent U.N. conference aimed at ending the war, any German peace policy carries some risk of attracting American ire. This would be a good reason to make the decision now, while several other key American allies are making the same move. Recognizing Palestine at the same time would make it more difficult for the Trump administration to retaliate against individual countries.

Finally, recognizing Palestine does not contradict Germany’s policy of treating Israeli security as part of its Staatsräson. Aside from debates about whether this is the right policy for Germany to have, recognizing Palestine does not endanger Israel in any way. It changes nothing about the military situation in Israel, Palestine, Iran, or the neighboring states. It is also unlikely to seriously help Hamas because Palestine is represented internationally by the Palestinian Authority, which is controlled by Hamas’s political rivals. Furthermore, it is unlikely that it will damage hostage negotiations because recognition has not been a part of these negotiations and thus it does not give away leverage.

Some Benefits, Very Few Costs

Simply recognizing a Palestinian state will not end the war. It will not, on its own, bring about a Palestinian state because recognition is not a constitutive part of statehood under international public law. It may not even save the ‘two-state’ solution  which has been the solution prescribed in different forms by the United Nations since 1948. It will not change the fact that last year only 26% of Israelis thought they could coexist with an independent Palestinian state and that the Palestinian Authority leadership, which will send Germany an ambassador, currently lacks the legitimacy to lead a future Palestinian state. Germany could not solve these issues on its own even if the government was willing to entertain much bolder steps.

However, recognizing Palestinian statehood will not harm efforts toward a ceasefire or even a peace deal in the long term. It’s unlikely that it will undermine Israeli or Palestinian peace activists. Instead, it would be a political and diplomatic step demonstrating to the current Israeli government that Germany will not follow them down a path that leads to the complete military domination of Palestinians and their eventual annexation and expulsion from their land. Recognizing Palestinian statehood also contributes to Germany’s support for a broader liberal international system by seeking to prevent the illegal annexation of the West Bank, which now has majority support from the Israeli Knesset. While not legally required, recognizing Palestinian statehood could also be a way to respond to the International Court of Justice’s ruling that states should “ensure that any impediment resulting from the illegal presence of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory to the exercise of the Palestinian people of its right to self-determination is brought to an end.” By treating Palestinians as people who have the right to not be stateless, Germany has the opportunity to contribute, in a small way, to a future in which they are not.

It is worth noting that the case for recognizing Palestinian statehood does not depend upon the conditions of the current war. Public pressure for engagement with Palestine tends to grow when Palestinians are killed in conflict, and to wane when Israelis die. However, Germany should recognize Palestinian statehood because Palestinians are a people with a right to self-determination, not because they are victims or because Germans are upset with the Israeli government. Germany should recognize Palestine as a state now because the reasons for delaying recognition no longer make sense, if they ever did, and because immediate recognition is a small step Germany can take unilaterally towards ending the conflict.