Zersplitterter Marmor
Der Angriff auf die Ukraine ist ein offener Bruch des Völkerrechts und eine machtpolitische Aggression gegen die bestehende Weltordnung. | Photo: Tom Barret auf Unsplash

Frieden am Ende? Die Eskalation im Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt und die Rolle der Friedenspolitik

Russland hat den Krieg begonnen. Der Angriff auf die Ukraine und die Anerkennung der „Volksrepubliken“ Donezk und Luhansk sind ein offener Bruch des Völkerrechts und eine machtpolitische Aggression gegen die bestehende Weltordnung. Die unmittelbaren Opfer sind die Menschen in der Ukraine. Die Kritik und Erbitterung des Westens ist groß. Ebenso die Enttäuschung über das Scheitern der eigenen Deeskalationsbemühungen. Ist mit dem Frieden auch die Friedens- und Sicherheitspolitik am Ende? Und mehr noch: War der Kurs der Vergangenheit, auf Diplomatie, Ausgleich und gemeinsame Sicherheit zu setzen verkehrt, wie jetzt von vielen behauptet wird?

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Wladimir Putin besucht Xi Jinping im Vorfeld der Olympischen Winterspiele 2022
Treffen Wladimir Putin mit Xi Jinping im Vorfeld der Olympischen Winterspiele 2022 in Peking | Photo: CC BY 4.0

A new Sino-Russian Entente? The limits of cooperation on Ukraine and beyond

As the military standoff over Ukraine continues, both sides have attempted to mobilize international support for their respective positions. While Kiev has received increasingly robust NATO backing, Russia has turned to its “strategic partner” China. A recently published joint Sino-Russian statement has fueled speculation that Beijing could weigh in on Moscow’s side and perhaps even lead to the resurgence of competition between ideological blocs in world politics. However, diverging interests on Ukraine limit such cooperation in the short term. A long-term alignment between both sides is a more serious possibility, but can still be influenced by Western policy choices.

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Treffen des russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin und des deutschen Bundeskanzlers Olaf Scholz in Moskau
Treffen des russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin und des deutschen Bundeskanzlers Olaf Scholz in Moskau | Photo: Presidential Executive Office of Russia | CC BY 4.0

Die Ukraine-Krise: von der Deeskalation zur Konfliktlösung?

Nach Wochen kontinuierlich steigender Spannungen zeichnet sich aktuell mit Russlands Ankündigung eines partiellen Truppenabzugs eine moderate Entspannung, vielleicht gar so etwas wie eine Trendumkehr ab. Dennoch stehen sich die Positionen beider Seiten, der NATO und der Ukraine auf der einen sowie Russlands auf der anderen, nach zahllosen Gesprächsrunden unverändert unvereinbar gegenüber. Um aus der Konfrontationslogik auszusteigen, bedarf es einer prozessualen Lösung, die sowohl den Konflikt im Osten der Ukraine als auch die Stellung Russlands im Gefüge der europäischen Sicherheit adressiert.

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Three ballot drums in a polling station in Serrekunda, Gambia, Nov. 30, 2016, on the eve of the presidential elections. | Photo: Jerome Delay | Picture Alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS

The AU as Peacebuilder in The Gambia: Why pragmatic Peacebuilding is good, but not enough

The African Union’s (AU) peacebuilding efforts in The Gambia reflect the organization’s growing responsibility in this field. From 2018 to 2020, the AU deployed the African Union Technical Support Team to The Gambia (AUTSTG). Drawing on interviews and document and media analyses in 2020/2021, this PRIF Spotlight examines this novel mode of engagement and points out an emerging dilemma: The AUTSTG was successful as a technical and pragmatic intervention. However, this only came at the expense of supporting long-term political processes and thus undermined the AU‘s holistic peacebuilding policy.

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Militärmarsch
Filip Andrejevic, Soldiers dressed in army camouflage march in formation, 2020 | Photo: Filip Andrejevic | unsplash.com

Eine militärisch autonome EU? Europäische Sicherheit und transatlantische Partnerschaft nach Afghanistan

Die Idee europäischer „Souveränität“ in der Sicherheitspolitik erlebt zur Zeit eine Renaissance. Besonders seit dem desaströs verlaufenen Rückzug westlicher Truppen aus Afghanistan sind die Rufe nach größerer militärischer Unabhängigkeit der EU von den USA wieder deutlich vernehmbar. Was dabei allzu leicht vergessen wird: Der Brexit hat das Ziel einer militärisch autonomen EU in noch weitere Ferne gerückt. Auf mittlere Sicht bleibt volle strategische Autonomie in diesem Bereich unrealistisch. Die beste Chance auf mehr europäische Handlungsfähigkeit liegt im Aufbau eines starken europäischen Pfeilers in der NATO.

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Gitterstruktur in Silber und Gold
Coordination is important for a contemporary peace and security architecture | Photo: Susan Gold | unsplash.com

Enhancing Coordination within the African Peace and Security Architecture

Over the last two decades, African states have demonstrated increasing agency in addressing conflicts by using their capacities at the national, sub-regional and continental levels. This newfound quest for inward solutions was ushered in by the formation of the African Union (AU) in 2001 which was empowered with normative and institutional mechanisms to coordinate African preventive and reactive approaches to crisis situations. Although this African agency is a welcome development, significant gaps remain in terms of harmonising various capacities within the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). Further harmonization requires a critical rethinking of APSA’s coordination mechanisms in peace and security.

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erence view Nairobi 2018
First Conference on Sustainable Blue Economy in Nairobi, 2018 | Photo: IMO-UN | CC BY-2.0

Investment in the Blue Economy for enhanced Maritime Security

The conventional understanding of maritime security is one that is viewed as battle-ready and state-centric. However, a more sustainable approach would be investment in the maritime sector under the Blue Economy (BE) lens. This would bring the general public into the fold of manning the marine space and frontiers, it would be essential in increasing the scope of security factors to be addressed. The incorporation of BE into African Peace and Security Architecture is vital in order to give it the required prominence within the continent’s peace and security agenda.

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Symbolic role of cybersecurity specialists
AI can play a decisive role in arms control in the future. | Photo: Khahn Tran | CC BY 4.0

AI for Arms Control: How Artificial Intelligence Can Foster Verification and Support Arms Control

Time and again, modern technology has enhanced arms control – with satellites, surveillance planes or more potent sensory equipment – to detect traces of forbidden substances. More recently, uncrewed vehicles found their way into the arsenals of arms control inspectors, enhancing verification. A very promising yet more difficult application will be to make use of artificial intelligence (AI) in arms control. However, many people have mixed emotions when it comes to AI, and exaggerated hopes as well as unjustified fears dominate the debate. The aim of this paper is to dispel reservations and, based on small projects, show how AI can be used in a reasonable way to enhance arms control and verification without getting caught up in hype.

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Abiy Ahmed with military commanders, 14 February 2019 | Photo: Office of the Prime Minister, Ethiopia on Flickr | Public Domain

Civil War in Ethiopia. The Instrumentalization and Politicization of Identity

For more than a year, the civil war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been causing severe human suffering and fatalities in the thousands. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, both conflict parties have committed serious human rights violations. This Spotlight shows how the shifting dynamics of ethnic power relations and the strategy of elite management pursued by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed contributed to the escalation of violence.

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To foster agency for African actors, it is necessary for all involved to deal with the colonial heritage that is still inherent to peace processes. |
Photo: Chang Qing on Unsplash | Free Use

Non-State Actors in Peace and Security in Africa: Inclusion on Paper but not in Practice

In a speech at the fifth United Nations-African Union Annual Conference on 1 December 2021 in New York, Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres called for continued unity and a high standard of regional co-operation on the African continent. According to Guterres, examples of this high standard of cooperation can be seen in the joint missions and collaborative frameworks designed to overcome both new and old challenges around peace and security. However, since not only states play a vital role in this unity it is important to review the role of non-state actors in peace and security on the African continent.

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