US-Präsidentschaftskandidat Donald J. Trump entgeht einem Attentat. Bereits Sekunden nach der Tat ballt Trump die Hand zur Faust und fordert seine Anhänger auf, den Kampf fortzuführen. Er schafft ein ikonisches Bild, das den weiteren Wahlkampf und den Ausgang der Wahl beeinflussen wird. Gleichzeitig illustriert die Geste unmittelbar, dass dieses Attentat wohl nicht zu einer notwendigen Zäsur in diesem Wahlkampf führen wird.
Schlagwort: Wahlen
Preparing for the Worst: A PRIF Blog Series on the US Elections in November
The presidential elections in the United States this November come with incredibly high stakes – both for US democracy and for US allies across the world. A new PRIF blog series on the consequences of the elections will address the possible fallout of a second Trump term for PRIF’s research areas and examine ways that German and European policymakers could prepare for and respond to the elections.
Violence in Political Competition in the Philippines: The 2023 Barangay Elections in Perspective
In the Philippines a large number of politicians and candidates are killed before, after and between elections. Against the backdrop of the constants and changes of this violence, I outline why a way out is not in sight and why several dozen dead incumbents and candidates can again be expected in the coming late October elections for Barangay (village municipal ward) leadership position.
Have the Tables Turned? What to Expect from Kenya’s New “Hustler” President William Ruto
Kenya had awaited the presidential elections held on August 9, 2022 with bated breath. The elections were won by William Ruto, who defeated opponent Raila Odinga by just a few percentage points. Ruto succeeds Uhuru Kenyatta, who leaves office having served his two permitted terms. This Spotlight analyzes the reasons for Ruto’s success, and, reflecting on his political career, discusses what can be expected from his presidency. We argue that both his success and his career have been strongly influenced by Kenya’s political history and the power structures of political alliances—especially in the context of previous elections.
Brazil’s Presidential Election: How Far does the Populist Glow Reach?
The first round of Brazil’s presidential elections took place on 2 October 2022. The result was 43.2% for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and 48.4% for ex-president (2003–2010) Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva. Given that none of the candidates achieved more than 50%, a final run-off is scheduled for 30 October. Pre-election polls predicted Lula would reach the critical 50% threshold. These polls also projected Bolsonaro would win around 36%. But in the end, his vote share was more than 43%. This result left the world searching for an explanation.
The 2023 Elections in Turkey. Can the Opposition Challenge Erdoğan and the AKP?
Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections on June 18, 2023, will be a notable juncture point. These elections will determine the country’s future and direction, and are therefore not only significant for domestic politics, but also at the international level as regards Turkey’s capacity to serve as a global actor. During these elections, the opposition will take on the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to gain political power after two decades of AKP rule. They will only have a chance of success if they propose a strong candidate to challenge Erdoğan.
Democracy on the Razor’s Edge: The 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil
Brazil’s presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 2, 2022. The confrontation between the extreme-right incumbent president Bolsonaro and the center-left former president Lula Da Silva provides a rare setting. The election places Brazil at a crossroads and will set the stage for either a comprehensive commitment to democracy under Lula or a continuation along the path to authoritarianism under Bolsonaro. Recent polls suggest that the most likely scenario is a win for Lula. Nevertheless, Brazil’s democratic institutions are continuously under attack. Currently, the possibility of the elections being preemptively cancelled or the final results being contested cannot be fully dismissed.
Kolumbien nach der Präsidentschaftswahl: Fünf Chancen und eine Herausforderung für die deutsche Außen- und Entwicklungspolitik
Kolumbien hat gewählt: In einem polarisierten Wahlkampf setzte sich bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen vom 19. Juni 2022 der linksgerichtete Kandidat Gustavo Petro knapp gegen den Rechtspopulisten Rodolfo Hernández durch. Dieser hat seine Niederlage öffentlich eingestanden. Ab dem 7. August wird das Land erstmals von einem linksgerichteten Präsidenten geführt und mit der Aktivistin Francia Márquez wird zum ersten Mal in der Geschichte des Landes eine Afrokolumbianerin das Amt der Vizepräsidentin bekleiden. Dieser Blogbeitrag skizziert fünf Chancen und eine Herausforderung für die deutsche Außen- und Entwicklungspolitik, um die guten Beziehungen zu dem lateinamerikanischen Schwergewicht Kolumbien fortzuführen und weiter auszubauen.
Reformist MPs Deny Hezbollah Majority in Lebanese Parliament – Prospects for Lebanon after the Elections
The results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections on May 17 showed a decrease in the number of seats claimed by Hezbollah and its supporters, and increases favoring the non-partisan reformist candidates supporting the October 17 protests of 2019. These developments reflect the growing will for change towards a democratic civil society in Lebanon, but they do not come without significant challenges. This blog examines the results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections and discusses the political difficulties in the coming phase; arguing that, given the risks of a power vacuum, the best possibility of democratic states is to support reformist representatives.
Elections in the Philippines: A Vote for Continuity?
In a few days, on May 9, 2022, the Philippines will elect the successor of outgoing President Duterte. The most likely candidate to become the new president of the Philippines is Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos. The vice-presidency will most probably go the daughter of the current president, Sara Duterte-Carpio, whose father is responsible for the brutal drug war of recent years. How did this happen, and what does it say about the state of democracy in the Philippines?
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