Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro doing the "gun gesture" in 2019. | Photo: flickr, Palácio do Planalto | CC BY 2.0

Bolsonaro gunning at Brazilian democracy

In Brazil, September 7th is Independence Day, traditionally celebrated with civil and military parades in the capital Brazilia and many other cities. What was intended to foster national pride and unity threatens to damage that very unity this year, as President Bolsonaro wants to turn the events into a show of strength signalling his will to win in the 2022 elections by a coup d’état if necessary. 

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Deutsch-chinesische Verhandlungen während eines Besuchs von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel in Peking, 2018. | Photo: picture alliance/Michael Kappeler/dpa

Deutsche China-Politik zwischen Partnerschaft und Rivalität

Chinas scheinbar unaufhaltsamer wirtschaftlicher Aufstieg hat inzwischen auch die deutsche Parteipolitik erreicht, und die Frage nach dem zukünftigen Umgang mit der neuen Supermacht als bedeutendes Wahlkampfthema etabliert. Die deutschen Parteien begegnen dieser Herausforderung, indem sie 2021 erstmalig ausgewiesene China-Politiken skizzieren. Das ist neu: noch 2017 fanden sich nur vereinzelte Erwähnungen von „China“ in den damaligen Programmen, und ausschließlich in unspezifischen Kontexten wie dem Umgang mit autoritär verfassten Staaten. Wie ein Vergleich der aktuellen Programme zeigt, ist China inzwischen nicht nur eines von vielen außenpolitischen Themen, sondern sogar wichtiges Element ihrer allgemeinen weltanschaulichen Positionierung.

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Am 26. September findet die Wahl zum 20. Deutschen Bundestag statt. | Photo: © Nasir Khan Saikat via Wikimedia Commons | CC BY-SA 3.0

HSFK-Blogreihe zur Bundestagswahl 2021: Wohin steuern die Parteien in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik?

Am 26. September 2021 wird ein neuer Bundestag gewählt und somit auch über die Zukunft der deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik mitentschieden. Wie genau positionieren sich die Parteien und welche Ziele verfolgen sie? In dieser Blogreihe untersuchen Mitarbeiter:innen der HSFK die außenpolitischen Positionen und Ziele der aktuell im Bundestag in Fraktionsstärke vertretenen Parteien. Die Beiträge betrachten eine Vielzahl an Politikfeldern und bewerten die friedenspolitischen Herausforderungen, die auf eine neue Bundesregierung zukommen.

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Symbolic picture: newly elected president, Guillermo Lasso (center) is leaving the inauguration ceremony arm in arm with Guadalupe Llori (right), indigenous leader and newly elected president of the National Assembly. | Photo: Flickr, Asamblea Nacional del Ecuador | CC BY-SA 2.0

Moving past the Pro-Correa / Anti-Correa divide in Ecuadorian politics: The indigenous Pachakutik party as a third force

On May 24, the day he took office as Ecuador’s new president, Guillermo Lasso,  was seen leaving the ceremony next to Guadalupe Llori, indigenous leader and newly elected president of the National Assembly. Lasso, a conservative politician and former banker, had won the runoff against Andrés Arauz, the candidate supported by the political movement of former president Rafael Correa, who had governed the country between 2007 and 2017. Yet, Ecuador’s new political landscape offers a chance to move beyond the polarization between Correa supporters (Correístas) and opponents (Anti-Correístas). A key sociopolitical force in this regard is the indigenous movement and its political organization, Pachakutik.

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Protesters in Miraflores demonstrate “For a Peru without corruption” on November 14, 2020. Peru’s crisis ahead of the April 11 parliamentary elections is multifaceted. | Photo: Flickr, Samantha Hare. | CC BY 2.0
Protesters in Miraflores demonstrate “For a Peru without corruption” on November 14, 2020. Peru’s crisis ahead of the April 11 elections is multifaceted. | Photo: Flickr, Samantha Hare. | CC BY 2.0

Peru: General Elections in the Air, a Crisis of Democracy on the Ground

On 11 April 2021, the Republic of Peru will hold general elections. However, the elections have been overshadowed by the November 2020 Parliamentary Coup and the massive police violence against protesters who have been demonstrating against the controversial outcast of the former President Martín Vizcarra by the Congress. PRIF student research assistant Laura Fischer had the opportunity to speak with Carlos López Felipe Vásquez, a Human Rights activist and a professor for Public International Law at the Technical University of Peru, about the background of the political and constitutional crisis.

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Past German-Russia relations have surely also been shaped by the relationship between both countries’ long-standing leaders. With Angela Merkel not running for election again and the upcoming Greens, how will a future German approach towards Russia look like? | Photo: flickr, Lord Jim | CC BY 2.0

Green is the New Black? What might the “Green” German foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia look like?

The election of a new German Chancellor to replace Angela Merkel after more than 15 years in office is eagerly anticipated both at home and abroad. However, anyone expecting a drastic change in German foreign policy towards Russia will be most likely disappointed. At present, most signs indicate that relations between both countries will remain frosty or even deteriorate post-election, regardless of who ultimately prevails in the voters‘ preference. However, one uncertain variable in this otherwise predictable equation is the possible role played by the Green Party in shifting the country’s international course, as it most likely will become a part of a new German government after the election.

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Photo: © picture alliance / ASSOCIATED PRESS | STR)

China in transitionary Myanmar. Challenging paths to democratization and peace

The recent military coup in Myanmar reversed a decade-long experiment towards incremental political liberalization. At the same time, it also brought China’s engagement there back into the spotlight, and initial Chinese reactions led to suspicions that Beijing had welcomed or even aided the return to military rule. However, the reality of China’s role in Myanmar’s democratic transition and simultaneous peace process is far more complicated, and instructive for its overall engagement in conflict societies.

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The annuled parliamentary elections in October 2020 roused mass protests against the winning parties and paved the way for the 2021 presidential and parliamentary elections (Photo: picture alliance, Abylai Saralayev/TASS).

At a Crossroads. Kyrgyzstan after the recent elections

Following its parliamentary elections in October 2020, Kyrgyzstan found itself facing post-election protests and a political crisis which resulted in a new political landscape. On 10 January 2021, Kyrgyz citizens voted for a new president and a fast-tracked constitutional reform to return to a presidential system. Although the protests in October 2020 resulted in political turnover, their momentum is currently being used to concentrate power in the hands of the president. Autocratic tendencies, corruption scandals, and socioeconomic grievances, which were further aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic, have marked recent developments in Kyrgyzstan.

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On January 10 2021, the Kyrgyz people will be called upon to elect a new President. | Photo: flickr, Ronan Shenhav | CC BY-NC 2.0

Kyrgyzstan Before the Presidential Elections

Kyrgyz citizens will vote for a new president on 10 January 2021. Protests have caused the annulation of the parliamentary elections of 04th October 2020 which resulted in a series of high-ranked officials’ resignations and the third ouster of a president in the country’s recent history. Since then, the political landscape is changing quickly. Recent developments, including an initiated constitutional reform process, cast doubts on the future democratic path of Kyrgyzstan.

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Stimmauszählung in Ouagadougou während der Wahlen 2015. Bei der diesjährigen Wahl müssen alle Stimmzettel händisch ausgezählt werden. | Photo: Voice of America via Wikimedia Commons | Public Domain/VOA.

„Es dreht sich alles um Transparenz. Wenn die Wahlen nicht transparent sind, wird es Probleme geben.“

Im vierten Interview haben Simone Schnabel und Antonia Witt mit Anselme Somda über mögliche Szenarien für den Ausgang der bevorstehenden Wahlen in Burkina Faso gesprochen. Anselme Somda arbeitet am Centre pour la Gouvernance Démocratique du Burkina Faso (CGD), einem Think Tank in Ouagadougou, der sich für Demokratisierung und gute Regierungsführung einsetzt. Das CGD koordiniert in Burkina Faso auch die von Afrobarometer regelmäßig durchgeführten Länderumfragen und ist Projektpartner der HSFK. Somda ist Jurist, wirkte als Abgeordneter in der Übergangsregierung 2014/2015 mit und bildet derzeit Wahlbeobachter*Innen für die bevorstehenden Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen am 22. November aus.

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