The 2025 Australian federal election happened during a tumultuous time, characterised by geopolitical competition, the climate crisis, and cost of living pressures. The rise of right-wing extremism in many countries and the erosion of the rules-based international order added to the mix. Australians overwhelmingly voted for a moderate government that, despite significant challenges, will facilitate international cooperation and peace-enhancing policies.
The 2025 Election in Context
In Australia, all members of the lower and more influential house of parliament, the House of Representatives, are up for elections every three years. In each of the currently 151 electorates, the candidate who gains most support through a preferential voting system grabs a seat in parliament.
In 2022, Anthony Albanese became prime minister of Australia after his left-centre Labour Party won a rather small majority in the House of Representatives. Widespread discontent with the previous right-centre Coalition (of the Liberal Party and the National Party) enabled Labour’s success, while a record number of independent and Green Party candidates gained seats.
In the months preceding the 2025 election, prospects did not look good for the Albanese government. High levels of inflation, a sustained cost-of-housing crisis, and a failed referendum to add Indigenous representation to the constitution had disillusioned many voters. Polls long predicted a close race between Labour and the Coalition, with most experts considered the latter the most likely winner. However, from late March, public mood seemed to turn around, with many polls predicting a 52%-48% Labour lead. Then came election day on 3 May, and with it came a landslide victory for Labour. The ruling party secured at least 89 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition only gained around 40.
A Trump Effect?
The recent Canadian election saw a similar late swing towards the ruling, centre-left Liberal Party. Voters rallied behind their prime minister in the context of Trump’s aggressive policies and comments towards the northern neighbour. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s borrowing of elements from the Trump populist playbook also received critical scrutiny.
The Australian election is another example of such a Trump slump. The Labour campaign could successfully portray Coalition leader Peter Dutton as pursuing Trump-style politics, including culture wars, an erratic foreign policy, and an economic agenda that favours higher incomes. With Australia being less polarised than the US or many European countries, and Australians just witnessing the fallouts of the first hundred days of the Trump administration, many voters were not keen to support such policies.
However, the chaotic start of the Trump presidency alone is insufficient to explain the late and massive swing towards Labour. Domestic political developments contributed significantly, with many Australians dissatisfied with the rising costs of living and housing under the current government. Crucially, they were not convinced that the Coalition could solve those issues. In the end, it is a party that had successfully suppressed wage growth in the past, had no sustainable solution to make real estate more affordable (other than allowing people to draw from their retirement fund), and planned to spend billions for a nuclear power program (in a country blessed with renewable energy potential).
By contrast, Labour’s promises of cutting student debt, providing more free health care services, subsidising childcare, and backing up the loans of house buyers with low savings were far more appealing. These policies are particularly relevant for younger and urban Australians. 2025 was the first election during which Gen Z and Millennial voters outnumbered the baby boomer generation, while Australia is one of the most urbanised countries globally (only 13% of the population lives in rural areas according to the World Bank).
Limited Signs of Radicalisation and Polarisation
From an intrastate peace perspective, the outcome of the election is good news. While Australia is already one of the most peaceful countries in the world domestically, it is by no means immune to extremism, populism, and polarisation. Left-wing extremism is historically marginal in Australia and played no role in the recent elections. The two most prominent right-wing extremist parties, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots, together only secured 8.11% of the primary vote, down from 9.47% in 2022. Neither party was able to gain a single seat in the House of Representatives. Their rhetorical and ideological closeness to Trump did not pay off.
Furthermore, all major political parties and players accepted the results swiftly and without casting doubt on the integrity of the election. There is wide consensus that the elections were free and fair. Hence, Australia did not go through discussions about the legitimacy and integrity of elections (which has recently been a concern in several democracies).
Implications for International Cooperation and Security
The Australian election results also have positive implications for peace at the international level. Both major parties as well as all elected third-party and independent candidates have shown a strong commitment to the rules-based international order. Their foreign policy agendas are also supportive of deepening regional cooperation, particularly with democratic countries like Japan and Indonesia.
The re-election of Anthony Albanese provides three further grounds for cautious optimism.
First, the Labour Party is considerably more committed to mitigating climate change than the Coalition. While the approval of several new oil and gas projects in recent years is irritating, the first Albanese government put a “net-zero emissions until 2050” into law and kickstarted investments into renewable energies. With climate change having massive adverse impacts on livelihoods, ecosystems, the sovereignty of low-lying countries, and (under certain circumstances) violent conflict risks, an ambitious climate policy can facilitate peace.
Second, Coalition leader Peter Dutton promised to strengthen Australia’s ties to US while taking a tougher stand towards China if elected. This would have effectively continued the policies of the last Coalition government (2019-2022) which resulted in a serious decline in Australian-China relations, including a “mini trade war”. The Labour government backs Australia’s strong ties with the US, but it also invested into improving the relations with Australia’s biggest trading partner. Consequently, the strategic climate and mutual trade flows between Australia and China have improved over the past three years. This more balanced approach, while preserving a strong military alliance with the US, puts Australia in a better position to deal with the emerging China-US rivalry in its neighbourhood.
Third, a few days before the election, the Coalition promised to reduce the aid budget by AU$ 813 million (€ 465 million) and implement public service cuts, including in areas related to international peace and security (such as the foreign affairs and international development portfolios). If implemented, this would have further limited the resources available to the international aid sector, which are already strained after the effective dismantling of USAID. Such resources can be crucial to address the root causes of crime and armed violence. Likewise, a loss of qualified staff in relevant areas would have reduced Australia’s ability to engage constructively with other countries, act as a mediator, and provide tailored development and peacebuilding policies.
Hopeful Signs
Australia is facing significant challenges, including high levels of inflation, devastating impacts of climate change, and an uneasy geopolitical situation in the midst of China-US competition. The election is not changing this, and the second Albanese government must find solutions for problems it was unable to solve during its first term. Yet from a peace perspective – focussing on topics like societal polarisation, international cooperation, and solidarity, and climate security – the recent Australian elections offer some hopeful signs. Even in a time when (geo)political turbulence is widespread, citizens can still vote for stability, cooperation, and solidarity.
Tobias Ide
