Room with semi-circular tables at which formally dressed people sit. A man in a suit is standing at the lectern, with a number of other people sitting behind him. The flag of the OPCW hangs on the wall.
March 5, 2025: Caretaker Foreign Minister al-Shaibani addresses the Executive Council at OPCW in The Hague | Photo: OPCW via flickr | CC BY 2.0

Chemical Weapons Disarmament in Syria – A Door Opening?

On March 5, 2025, the caretaker foreign minister of Syria, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, delivered a speech at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in which he promised that his government would eliminate the Syrian chemical weapons programme and bring the country back into compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). If implemented, this would end over a decade of Syrian violations of the CWC, offer the opportunity to hold those responsible to account, and reaffirm the global norm against chemical weapons. Deeds will have to follow these words, but this announcement at least allows for some cautious optimism in an otherwise gloomy international disarmament climate.

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Exponation of different missiles at the territory of the White Sands Missile Museum with a MIM-14 Nike Hercules nuclear missile in the center.
MIM-14 Nike Hercules nuclear missile at the White Sands Missile Range Museum, New Mexico. | Foto: Kelly Michals via flickr | CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

A Stress Test of Nuclear Deterrence

This month, the Tenth Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is taking place in New York City. The meeting of states parties, postponed four times because of the Covid pandemic, had originally been scheduled for April 2020. With Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the geopolitical context has since deteriorated to the point where progress on nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation seems almost impossible. The war and Russia’s nuclear threats are fostering a renaissance of nuclear deterrence and rearmament and are threatening to deepen pre-existing fissures in the NPT. To counter the looming erosion of this cornerstone of global arms control, we need to acknowledge the darker side of nuclear deterrence that the Ukraine war is exposing. Understanding the current crisis as a crisis of nuclear deterrence can open up opportunities for de-escalation, disarmament and arms control – similar to the transformative effects of the Cuban Missile Crisis during the Cold War.

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