Three years ago, in Ukraine, I was awoken at 4:45 am by a frightening noise unlike anything I had ever heard. I stared into the darkness behind the window and told myself: it’s not true, it’s not a war, it’s just military exercises. Yet the nightmare of Russia’s full-scale military invasion was real and continues to this day. Since then, Ukrainians have been standing, fighting, and defending themselves, resisting not only Russia but also prophesies of disaster and efforts to undermine support for Kyiv. Despite this, the Ukrainian army still stands and it holds the key to the future.
Schlagwort: Russia
How a Sustainable Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine Could be Reached
The Trump administration’s recent actions have left many uncertain about the prospects and trajectory of the Russo-Ukrainian war. False certainties and anxious interpretations abound. However, some clear tendencies have emerged from Trump’s first few months in office as well as from his last term. Europe’s leaders, while trapped between Trump’s geopolitical flailing, Putin’s ongoing war efforts, and a continent-wide surge in nationalist sentiments, have options at their disposal that could significantly shape upcoming decisions. A lot is at stake, and the time to act is now.
Is Lawfare Fair? Russia’s Illegal War and the International System
The search for recognised political legitimacy and legality is integral to states which take part in the international system. As Moscow’s acts of aggression continue in Ukraine, the international community has not been able to end the war, nor appropriately address its illegality. With Russia’s actions strictly going against international law, the use of legal means to lock-in the status quo has been a key part of the Russian war strategy. This blog conceptualises lawfare and contextualises its uses by Russia at the UN level.
Reducing Nuclear Threats: Why Talks on Ending the War in Ukraine Should Include Agreements on Nuclear Risk Reduction
As the new U.S. administration pivots toward negotiating a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, the growing nuclear threat from Russia demands urgent attention. Drawing on Cold War history and negotiation research, this analysis highlights how arms control – formal or informal – can help curb nuclear risks even in the most volatile crises. German and transatlantic policy makers should therefore integrate practical arms control and risk reduction measures into ceasefire discussions to safeguard European security and prevent nuclear escalation.
Sweden’s Accession to NATO: What Is behind the Decision?
Russia’s war against Ukraine has echoed in Northern Europe and in the Arctic, where Russia is one of the most influential actors. The region’s security landscape has been significantly transformed after Finland and Sweden, two countries that had previously preferred cooperation with NATO over full membership, joined the Alliance. Because Finland shares a common land border with Russia, its decision was met internationally with reserved understanding. Sweden, however, is in a comparatively unthreatened region, thus for actors outside Northern Europe it was an unexpected move. So, was Stockholm’s decision really surprising? Why did it happen, and what are the potential consequences?
A Green Recovery for Ukraine: How to Avoid the Trap of Green Colonialism?
The environment is not a silent victim in Russia’s war against Ukraine; the long-term threats for the people of Ukraine are already visible. The environmental dimension of the war has been documented from early on. In this respect, the war is a model for future military conflicts. President Zelenskyy emphasized in his peace plan that green reconstruction is an essential element for a just and sustainable future. Green reconstruction, as every reconstruction, needs international support and local engagement. In this blog post, we identify the conditions that must be met to ensure that local groups are empowered and new international dependencies are avoided.
How War in Israel Affects Russia’s War Against Ukraine
Since February 24th, 2022, the world has witnessed Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which has become a serious challenge to many countries but particularly to those in the Euro-Atlantic community. A year and a half of brutal aggression has compelled Western governments to elaborate and implement a range of complex decisions at unprecedented scales and on a very short timelines. Further, Russia’s invasion has tested West’s ability to predict and assess security threats and to generate and sustain adequate political attention to the crisis. The shocking massacre of Israelis by Hamas on October 7th, 2023, has forced Western policy makers to react quickly to another crisis in another part of the world. Understandably, the Ukrainian government’s anxiety has increased with the uncertainty as to how it might be possible for the West would cope with two crisis situations simultaneously, and what—if anything— Kyiv should do about the situation in Israel.
“Russian Self-Defense”? Fact-Checking Arguments on the Russo-Ukrainian War by John J. Mearsheimer and Others
In the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, and in the wider Russo-Western conflict, both sides compete over international influence as well as over how Ukraine and Russia are governed. While most would agree with this general assessment, prominent scholars like John J. Mearsheimer and others have argued that the West caused these confrontations by aggressively expanding its influence and preferred regime type into Ukraine, thus forcing Russia’s hand. However, while Russia’s perceptions of NATO evidently played a role in its decisions, a recent study finds that Mearsheimer’s arguments are at best incomplete and at worst simply false.
An African Peace Initiative in the Russia-Ukraine War?
A team of seven African presidents led an initiative in mid-June 2023 to attempt to make peace in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. For most observers, this intervention raised interesting questions: How can states from a continent ravaged by wars and conflicts have the courage, credibility, and conviction to intervene in a European conflict? Moreover, how can countries without power and leverage intervene in a conflict in which other more powerful actors have failed? What did they expect to achieve from this intervention? This article suggests that the African team sought to invoke the dire economic consequences occasioned by the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Africa to exert moral leverage on the disputing parties to end the war. Combined with the desperate economic situation, the African leaders found strength in their neutrality to make a case for a peaceful approach to a conflict that has had global ramifications. The initiative did not seek to mediate the conflict; rather, it was a modest diplomatic plea for peace in the face of a deteriorating situation.
What’s the Long-Term Significance of Wagner’s March to Moscow?
On 23 and 24 June, armed columns of the Wagner Group made their way from occupied Ukrainian territory toward Moscow, passing through Rostov and Voronezh. The declared goal of these Russian mercenaries under the leadership of oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin was to depose Russian Minister of Defense Sergei K. Shoigu and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery V. Gerasimov. Prigozhin accused both of having betrayed Russia in its war against Ukraine.
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